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Presti versus PJP48

I was looking back over Presti's drafts on Basketball Reference—as you do -- and I noticed he's pretty terrible at it.

If a top 5 pick doesn't land -- ala KD, Russ or Harden -- in his lap, he compulsively gambles on obscure unknowns, or players with known warts... And it's never worked out. Not here at least, although he has traded away plenty of talent.

The worst being Brandon Clarke for Bambi on Ice Bazley. After three years wracked with injury, Clarke still leads his draft class cohort in win share -- ahead of Zion Williamson and Ja Morant -- with 12.2. In hundreds more minutes, Bambi has accrued .6 of a single win share. Also, his PER is 10.2, half of Clarke's 20.1.

Naturally, this all shows up in PJP48, so I decided to redraft all Presti's picks from 2009 onwards up to his latest and probably, greatest draft.

My metric only has 700 or so players so far, so I couldn't go too far back, as there are hardly any players entered in the earlier years... However, it wasn't very hard to improve on his efforts. I simply opened my metric and picked players with highher scores still on the board at our draft spots.

The key data is the averages along the bottom.

Presti's drafts average the 28th pick, and a dismal career 11.7 PER well below the league average which is set at 15. His players also averae 11.2 win shares, although most of this is Harden alone. If you take his 146.8 WS out of the equation, the other 22 players average around 8. The players picked average 15.42 on PJP48.

My players picked on PJP48 average 19.84. PER of 16.8 and Win Shares of 25.86. They also average the 34th draft slot, so better value too.

Note, this year I kept my metric darling Sengun and also reversed that stupid trade of 34 and 36 for 32 to get JRE.

Year # First PJP48 Surname PER WS # New PJP48 Surname PER WS
2009 3 Jsames 16.6 Harden 24.7 146.8 3 Jsames 16.6 Harden 24.7 146.8
2009 25 Rodrique N/A Beaubois 14.5 4.8 46 Danny 16.6 Green 12.8 48.4
2010 51 Magnum 10.6 Rolle 0 0 61 Jeremy 15.7 Lin 15.3 23.5
2011 24 Reggie N/A Jackson 15.4 33.2 30 Jimmy 14.5 Butler 21.1 89.3
2012 12 Jeremy 11.4 Lamb 15.8 26.3 46 Draymond 16.6 Green 14.9 52.6
2012 28 Perry 15.6 Jones 8.5 1.7 40 Will 17 Barton 14.3 24.6
2013 12 Steven 18.8 Adams 17 52.6 12 Steven 18.8 Adams 17 52.6
2013 29 Alex N/A Abrines 8.8 5 61 Robert 15.1 Covington 12.9 26.5
2014 21 Mitch 18.8 McGary 15.4 1.3 23 Clint 25.7 Capela 22.3 48.6
2014 29 Josh 11.7 Huestis 6 0.7 30 Kyle 25.9 Anderson 14.2 25.3
2015 14 Cam 17.6 Payne 13.2 7.1 22 Bobby 22 Portis 17.1 19
2015 48 Dakari 15.1 Johnson 16.4 0.06 61 Javonte 20.6 Green 12.3 3.7
2016 11 Dom 23.6 Sabonis 18.6 33.5 11 Dom 23.6 Sabonis 18.6 33.5
2017 21 T N/A Fern 5.6 4.4 23 OG 18.7 Onouby 12.6 15.8
2018 53 Devon 13.4 Hall 3 0.02 54 Shake 16.1 Milton 13.7 6.1
2018 57 Kevin 15.6 Hervey 5 -0.1 61 Kenrich 15.5 Williams 11.4 6.4
2019 21 Darius N/A Bazely 10.2 0.6 21 Brandon 24 Clarke 20.1 12.2
2020 25 Emmanuel 10.2 Quickly 14.4 4.8 30 Desmond 15.9 Bane 14.6 6.8
2020 53 Casius 11.3 Winston 10.3 0.1 55 Paul 21.8 Reed 17 1
2021 6 Josh 23.2 Gidday 13.5 0.6 6 Josh 23.2 Gidday 13.5 0.6
2021 18 Tre 15 Mann 9.6 0.2 16 Alperen 30.6 Sengun 18 1.4
2021 32 Jeremiah 16.3 Rob-Earl 11 1.2 18 Jaden 15.4 Springer 27 0
2021 55 Andrew 12.8 Wiggins 11.2 0.9 34 Joe 17.1 Wieskamp 16.7 0.2
2021 36 Charles 26.8 Bassey 23.1 0.9
2021 55 Justin 22.2 Champagnie 14.9 0.7
28.2 AVERAGES 15.42 AVERAGES 11.7 14.16 34 AVERAGES 19.84 AVERAGES 16.8 25.86

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