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Mullayo's NBA Draft Big Board

BRYAN TERRY via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Editor's Note: The reasoning for PCP40 is explained here. Mullayo tested his metric on the 2010 Draft Class and those results can be viewed here. This research has been a month in the making, enjoy!

My big board is an uneasy combination of consensus opinion and my metric Pro-Jection Per 48 (PJP48) - both are posted below.

The points created per 40 (PCP40 which calculates the total points a player puts on the scoreboard for their team in 40 minutes - filtered for age, experience, pace, SOS, team points and usage.

These pure PCP results are adjusted for NBA pace and screened for the individual's NBA positional athleticism, length and strength.

It wasn't easy for me to integrate the two concepts, so I just upgraded the consensus 'stars' that I feel will succeed despite their flaws. Likewise there were high metric scorers who have huge warts that may hamper or prevent their translation to the the NBA, such as being too short to defend, unathletic or unable to shoot at the league level.

The bottom line was I went first and foremost with players whom I think will succeed in the league for one reason or another.

The best mainstream big board, in my opinion, is Tankathon, by a long way. They must have some metric basis because a lot of valuations are similar to mine, they're just less extreme.

There are 50 or so I didn't post, but they were too low to bother with, if you're missing someone they're probably amongst that lot.

I assume everyone hates it, but we'll see in three of four years I guess.

This volatile draft appears weaker at the top than last year's with a lot of flawed players and very few safe picks. But it appears to be much deeper and murkier in the middle - maybe because I have 130 prospects?

If that consensus doesn't shift between now and the day of the draft, I think there will be lot of steals and, not necessarily busts but, probably just as bad, cash and time consuming projects.

Tier 1: Mobley and Sengun - safe-ish stars

Tier 2: Suggs (3) down to Jackson (14) - safe bets for starters

Tier 3: Grimes (15) to Onu (40)- riskier picks, with more upside but most likely role-players

Tier 4: Simms (41) onwards safe bet roleplayers

Big board first. Points pro-jected per 48 minutes on the right.

P First # Surname VS P First # Surname PJP
C Evan 1 Mobley C Alperen 1 Sengun* 33.8
PF Alperen 2 Sengun* C Evan 2 Mobley 29.2
PG Jalen 3 Suggs C Neemias 3 Queta 28.4
SF Scottie 4 Barnes SF Jalen 4 Johnson 27.9
SF Franz 5 Wagner SG Josh 5 Giddey* 27.5
PG Jason 6 Preston SF Scottie 6 Barnes 27.1
CG Cade 7 Cunningham C Isaiah 7 Jackson 26.8
CG Josh 8 Giddey* C Charles 8 Bassey 26.3
SF Jalen 9 Johnson PG Jason 9 Preston 26.1
PG Miles 10 McBride PG Miles 10 McBride 26.1
PG Jared 11 Butler PG Dashien 11 Nix* 25.3
SG Jalen 12 Green* PG McKinley 12 Wright iV 24.7
C Neemias 13 Queta SF Franz 13 Wagner 24.6
PF Isaiah 14 Jackson PG Sharife 14 Cooper 24.1
SG Quentin 15 Grimes C Day'Ron 15 Sharpe 23.9
PG Sharife 16 Cooper PG Jared 16 Butler 22.8
CG Ayo 17 Dosunmu PG Jalen 17 Suggs 22.7
PF Usman 18 Garuba* PG Davion 18 Mitchell 22.6
C Charles 19 Bassey PF Usman 19 Garuba* 22.5
PG Davion 20 Mitchell SF Justin 20 Champagnie 22.2
PG Dashien 21 Nix* PG JaQuori 21 McLaughlin 22.0
PF Luca 22 Garza C Jay 22 Huff 22.0
PF Santi 23 Aldama PF Santi 23 Aldama 21.9
PG McKinley 24 Wright iV SG Ayo 24 Dosunmu 21.8
SF Jonathan 25 Kuminga* PG DeJon 25 Jarreau 21.5
C Jay 26 Huff SG Joel 26 Ayayi 21.4
SF Justin 27 Champagnie PF Luca 27 Garza 21.3
SG JaQuori 28 McLaughlin C Cam 28 Krutwig 21.0
SF Joe 29 Wieskamp C EJ 29 Onu 20.9
C Day'Ron 30 Sharpe C Ibou 30 Badji* 20.9
SG Corey 31 Kispert PG Paul 31 Scruggs 20.9
SG Joel 32 Ayayi SG Jaden 32 Springer 20.7
PG DeJon 33 Jarreau PF Jericho 33 Sims 20.5
SG Moses 34 Moody PG Austin 34 Reaves 20.5
CG Jaden 35 Springer SF Herb 35 Jones 20.2
PG Paul 36 Scruggs PF Aamir 36 Simms 20.0
SG Nas'Shon 37 Hyland SF JT 37 Thor 19.8
PF JT 37 Thor SF Dalano 38 Banton 19.7
SG James 39 Bouknight SG Moses 39 Moody 19.7
C EJ 40 Onu PG Colbey 40 Ross 19.6
SF Aamir 41 Simms SF Chris 41 Smith 19.5
SF Trendon 42 Watford PF Trendon 42 Watford 19.5
PF Moses 42 Wright SG Aaron 43 Wiggins 19.3
PG Austin 43 Reaves SG Juhann 44 Begarin* 19.3
SG Chris 44 Duarte PF Filip 45 Petrusev* 19.2
SF Herb 45 Jones SF Cade 46 Cunningham 19.1
SF Chris 46 Smith PF Moses 47 Wright 19.1
SF Dalano 47 Banton SF Joe 48 Wieskamp 19.0
PF Jeremiah 49 Robinson-Earl PF Jeremiah 49 Robinson-Earl 18.9
C Cam 50 Krutwig SF Aaron 50 Henry 18.6
PF Filip 51 Petrusev* PG Rokas 51 Jokubaitis* 18.5
SG Juhann 52 Begarin* C Derek 52 Culver 18.4
C Ibou 53 Badji* PG Tre 53 Mann 18.2
SG Aaron 54 Wiggins PF Roko 54 Prkacin* 17.9
PG Rokas 55 Jokubaitis* SG Quentin 55 Grimes 17.8
C Derek 56 Culver SG David 56 Duke 17.8
PG Colbey 57 Ross SG Marcus 57 Garrett 17.7
CG David 58 Duke SG Brandon 58 Rachal 17.3
PF Jericho 59 Sims SF Kessler 59 Edwards 17.3
SF Aaron 60 Henry PF Oscar 60 Da Silva 17.1
SF Trey 61 Murphy III PF Sandro 61 M-kelashvili 17.0
PG Tre 62 Mann SF Trey 62 Murphy III 16.9
C Kai 63 Jones SG Jalen 63 Green* 16.8
SF Kessler 64 Edwards C Kai 64 Jones 16.8
PF Sandro 65 M-kelashvili SF Sam 65 Hauser 16.5
PF RaiQuan 66 Gray C Ismael 66 Kamagate* 16.4
SG Keon 67 Johnson SG Matt 67 Mitchell 16.2
PF Oscar 68 Da Silva SF Feron 68 Hunt 16.2
PF Isaiah 69 Todd* PF RaiQuan 69 Gray 16.1
PF Keve 70 Aluma C Moussa 70 Cisse 16.1
PF Greg 71 Brown PF Keve 71 Aluma 16.0
PG Marcus 72 Zegarowski PG Carlik 72 Jones 16.0
CG Michael 73 Devoe PG Marcus 73 Zegarowski 15.9
SG Josh 74 Christopher SF Corey 74 Kispert 15.9
PF Matthew 75 Hurt PF Isaiah 75 Livers 15.9
SF Sam 76 Hauser SG Chris 76 Duarte 15.8
SF Ziaire 77 Williams SG David 77 Johnson 15.7
SG Brandon 78 Rachal PG Jose 78 Alvarado 15.6
SF Isaiah 79 Livers SF Jonathan 79 Kuminga* 15.2
SG Joshua 80 Primo SG James 80 Bouknight 14.9

So what do you guys think?

This post does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of Welcome to Loud City or SB Nation. However, it was made by one of the members of the Welcome to Loud City community, so there is a large chance the above post is extremely ballin'!