I entered all the players - aside from six or seven Euros, I couldn't find stats for - from the real 2010 NBA draft and two undrafted (61) steals into the PCP40 metric

I made two sets of columns The first is the actual draft without the Euros. With the draft slot, colour-banded for how high the player was selected.

The second is simply by PCP40 rankings with no eye scouting whatsoever. Again, with the draft slot colour-banded for how high the player was selected.

As you can see in the metric version the cream naturally rises to the top and the talent is bunched a lot better in the first round. Thus most of the busts are suppressed. Undrafted Jeremy Lin (5) and Ish Smith (32) both get their just dues.

You need to beware of recency bias when looking at these results. Players who come good three, four or five years into their career were sub-standard players for significant time. Especially the younger ones without a long college career behind them. The metric is age adjusted but they still have a higher variance. Thus the rush to gamble on them I suppose.

A certain percentage of players do grow of course - particularly one-and-dones which both Avery Bradley and Eric Bledsoe - very similar stat profiles. Bledsoe should probably be bumped for going to Kentucky. Both could shoot a bit but neither was/is a great passer or got to the free throw line.

----------REAL DRAFT -------------------------PCP40 DECIDED DRAFT------