FanPost

Danilo Gallinari's Statistical Scouting Report (as posted in the comment section before)

Danilo Gallinari's season last year (2018/19) at age 30


Counting Stats/Shooting Splits: 46.3 FG%/43.3 3P%/90.4 FT% shooting splits on 5.5 3PA per game and 6.0 FTA per game, 19.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.5 TO, 0.7 STL, 0.3 BLK in 68 GP, on 30.3 MPG

Usage rate: 23.8% (good for the 89.5th percentile in the league, making him a moderately high usage player. He also transitioned seamlessly between on-ball shot creator and off-ball floor spacer/cutter depending on what the Clippers needed at the time)

(Percentile figures include guys who wouldn't qualify because of small sample sizes, although Gallo has large sample sizes in all cases. NBA.com won't show what the percentile is after those guys have been filtered out, so really these numbers probably undersell him)

-5th in the league in 3P% at 43.3% on 5.5 3PA per game

-4th in the NBA in FT% at 90.4% on 6.0 FTA per game (FreeThowRate of .459 which is good for 10th in the league overall and 1st amongst guys who shoot at least 81% or better from the line)

-91.3rd percentile on Spot-Ups (3.5 per game) accounting for 21% of his possessions (26th out of 269 guys with 41 GP and 1.0 possessions per game or more)

-69.2nd percentile on iso PPP on 2.4 possessions per game (14.5% of possessions, many coming during the first 2/3 of the years where the Clippers played 3 on offensively as he shared the floor with Avery Bradley and Marcin Gortat)

-92nd percentile as PnR ball handler on 2.0 possessions on an 11.8% frequency (9th out of 157 players with 41 GP and 1.0 possessions per game or more)

-91.2nd percentile on Post-Ups (1.15 PPP, 1st in the league of 73 players with at least 41 GP and 1 post-up possession per game, 91.2 percentile even including SSSguys)

-91.6th percentile as the PnR Roll Man (1.33 PPP, 9th of 111 guys with at least 41 GP and 0.5 possessions. Gallo played 68 games and averaged 1.0 possessions. 91.6th percentile even with SSS included)

-82.4th percentile in Transition (1.28 PPP, 28th of 234 with 41 GP and 1 possessions per game or more. Gallo had 1.8 possessions per in 68 games. 82.4th percentile with SSS guys)

-78.3rd percentile on Cuts (1.42 PPP, 62nd of 285 with 41 GP, though he only averaged 0.7 possessions per game. 78.3rd percentile with SSS guys)

-91.8th percentile Off Screens (1.21 PPP, 9th of 122 with 41 GP and 0.5 possessions per game. He averaged 1.4 possessions in 68 games. 91.8th percentile even with SSS included)

-85th percentile (1.01 PPP) off the dribble (as of 2/28/19)

-90th percentile (1.28 PPP) on catch-and-shoot opportunities (as of 2/28/19)

-1st in the NBA in overall PPP at 1.17ish amongst guys with at least 1,000 possessions in 2018/19. This was again on a usage rate of 23.8%, good for the 89.5th percentile, a lot of which came from him being asked to create offense from scratch, so it's not as if he only cherry-picks his shot attempts. He even scores well on putbacks (86.3rd percentile) and "Misc" (97.7th percentile), although admittedly on few attempts.

Advanced Misc.

-20th overall in WS/48 (.191, .100 is league average, .175 is average for an all-star)
-13th in OWS (6.4)
-5th in offensive rating (124.9)
-11th in TS% (.633)
-11th overall in ORPM (3.58)
-26th in RPM (3.58)
-16th in OBPM (4.2)

-one of two players (Stephen Curry was the other) that ranked in the top 5 in both 3-point percentage (43.3 percent -5th) and free throw percentage (90.4 percent - 4th)

-shot 44-for-45 (98 percent) on clutch free throws, the best mark among players who attempted at least 25

-On defense, Gallo surprised and impressed Clippers fans, teammates, and coaches by being much better than his defensive reputation and solid overall. His athleticism rebounded a lot last year and he was actually an above average defender. Certainly not lockdown but he can switch competently 1-5 on defense by making up for lack of overall athleticism with good footwork and basketball IQ. He also communicated very well defensively and has drastically improved his help defense over the course of his career from "awful" to "not quite great but certainly very good." I saw every minute the Clippers played last year and he was clearly a plus defender, though certainly not a terror.

From Clips Nation:

"Danilo Gallinari has to defend in isolation on 19.5 percent of his defensive possessions.
Perhaps because of some long-standing biases about European players, there is a perception that Gallinari isn't a great defensive player. That might be why he's attacked in isolation more frequently than any other Clipper, for nearly a fifth of the time he's on defense. Doc Rivers has admitted that his teams used to try to go after Gallinari often before he was his head coach. But Gallinari is a stout individual defender, and he only concedes 0.80 points per possession on isos, which puts him in the 67th percentile of defenders. That means the offensive efficiency of the players going at Gallinari is equivalent to that of Reggie Jackson or Russell Westbrook, making the forward LA's best isolation defender."

There have been times in his career where he wasn't good defensively, due to injury limiting his mobility. But last season he was as healthy as he's been in a while and it showed on the defensive end.
Some other Gallinari stats (not only from this past season):

-13th in NBA history in offensive rating
-21st all-time in TO%
-36th all-time in TS% (.633% this past year)
-29th all-time in FT% (with a career FTr of .450, compared to the league average of .200 last season)
-The only NBA player 2016/17 to provide positive value in all 14 (7 offensive and 7 defensive) play types


On Gallo's season (and last 4 years) in the post:

There were 87 players to play in at least 50 games and average at least 0.5 possessions per game in the post in 2018/19. Gallo is 1st out of 87 players in PPP at 1.15, and the only 2 others in the top 10 with at least a double digit frequency of possessions were Alex Len (10.9%) and Pascal Siakam (12.11%), compared to Gallo's 11.3%. He also averaged 1.9 possessions per game, tied with Siakam for the most in the top 10, and had the 8th best TO% (only 6.9%) out of the 87.

And unsurprisingly, he was also 1st of all 87 guys in Free Throw Frequency in the post (26.9%), ahead of foul magnets (and somewhat to vastly inferior FT shooters) Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, DeAndre Jordan, Julius Randle, AD, Blake Griffin, Ben Simmons, PG, Devin Booker, Giannis, Jimmy Butler, KD, and Lebron).
It's not just this season either. Over the last 4 seasons, league average for PPP on post-ups was about 0.89. This past season, an average possession of any kind produced 1.06 points. In the last 4 years (since nba.com starting releasing PPP data for individual play types), Gallo has put together this line:

352 total possessions over 205 GP (1.136 PPP, 10.5% of possessions, 1.72 possessions per game, in 51.25 GP) per season

Here's the complete list of other guys to have at least a 1.136 PPP average on post-up possessions of the course of even just a single season over that time:

2015/16
-Marvin Williams (1.16PPP, 4.3%, 0.5 Pos, 81GP)
-Kevin Durant (1.24PPP, 8.1%, 2.1 Pos, 72GP)

2016/17
-Arron Afflalo (1.21 PPP, 11.6%, 1.0 Pos, 61 GP)

2017/18
-Marvin Williams (1.18 PPP, 7.4%, 0.6 Pos, 78 GP)
-Nene (1.16 PPP, 7.7%, 0.5 Pos, 52 GP)

2018/19
-Frank Kaminsky (1.36 PPP , 6.5%, 0.5 Pos, 47GP)
-Kelly Olynyk (1.14 PPP, 7.6%,0.7 Pos, 79GP)

Of those guys, only Marvin Williams has managed that more than once (on a much lesser frequency), only KD has matched the number of possessions per game (on a lower frequency), and only Afflalo managed to have as high of a percentage (on fewer overall possessions). Of all of the guys in the league who look like they could come in second over that time period in PPP (and I haven't gotten around to calculating the entire league yet, but I have run the numbers for each of those guys listed above), Marvin Williams' 4 year resume looks like this:

310 GP, 170.3 (ish, nba.com doesn't go beyond tenths for possessions per game) Total Possessions
1.048 PPP, 5.64% of plays, 0.55 possessions per game, 77.5 GP)

That means Gallo has been (almost certainly likely, I'm not done researching) the only NBA player over the 4 last years to produce an above-average possession (compared to league average of 1.05-1.06 on all possessions) on post-up possessions that that player used himself. Williams obviously clobbers him in GP, but everything else lags pretty far behind (including a whopping nearly 0.09 difference in PPP on 50% of the frequency). There are other guys who create massive value in the post (Aldridge, Embiid, Jokic, KAT, Ayton) by producing at 1.00+ PPP on 4.5 to 8.5 possessions per game, or guys like Horford, Nurkic and Marc Gasol (and Jokic, although he also scores well) who provide a ton of value in the post with their passing on a lot of possessions, even if their scoring in that area is at or slightly above average. Gallo is not the passer those guys are, but he's stingy with turnovers and consistently makes the correct pass (especially when doubled) though not necessarily the brilliant one.

His usage is also not as high as those guys I just mentioned, but a 11.3% frequency (42nd) and 1.9 possessions used per game (31st) are nothing to sneeze at. Aa major part of the Clippers' offense in 2018/19 was to get him the ball in the post, especially when they were able to force a switch, which Gallo has consistently been able to exploit (in either direction for that matter).


Here's a section from an article from January 9th from The Atlantic about his prowess as the PnR ball handler. At the time, he was leading the league in PPP amongst qualified players:

"1. Danilo Gallinari, Los Angeles Clippers — 117.3 points per 100 PnR possessions (127 poss.)
What he's doing: The effectiveness Danilo Gallinari is generating as a playmaking 4 or 5 most nights for the Los Angeles Clippers is pretty staggering. He's the top pick-and-roll creator in the NBA this season. Doc Rivers and Lawrence Frank envisioned Gallinari in this type of a role for them when they signed him two summers ago. However, they assumed Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan would be around for that. Then everything changes and now it's Gallinari playing with Tobias Harris and Montrezl Harrell as his main targets.

As a passer, Gallinari is creating an absurd 75.6 percent on effective field goal percentage and over 121 points per 100 possessions. As a scorer, he's taking a lot of midrange jumpers as he slithers around the defense. Gallo also gets to the free throw line 20 percent of the time. That's a huge chunk of those possessions ending up with uncontested shots.
How he does it: For a 6-foot-10 forward, Gallo really does have great control navigating these screens. Remember he has a couple of inches on Griffin, so you're essentially getting a guy the size of Ben Simmons running things so smoothly. Yes, Simmons already runs that stuff smoothly, but remember it's a rare thing.
Gallo comes in and loves to snake around defenders after he navigates the initial pick action. It's similar to something CJ McCollum does quite often, except he's a power forward sized human. His height and balance help him feel comfortable pulling up for jumpers, hitting step-back jumpers, and finding contact.

As a passer, Gallo's patience shines through even more. He utilizes Montrezl Harrell beautifully most times down the floor in a PnR. Harrell rates out as the second best PnR big man in the league (Rudy Gobert is first). Gallo always makes sure to give Harrell a full head of steam. Gallinari also has plenty of tricks up his sleeve to find passing angles around defenders jostling for position with the roller.

He can still turn the ball over way too often (over 21 percent of the time), but for the most part Rivers empowers Gallinari to keep exploring ways to attack in these situations.

Sustainability: Here are Gallo's numbers in the PnR from the previous three seasons.

2017-18 season: 150.0 points/100 (including passes), 133.3 points/100 (scorer)
2016-17 season: 110.8 points/100 (including passes), 105.7 points/100 (scorer)
2015-16 season: 78.9 points/100 (including passes), 81.0 points/100 (scorer)

First and foremost, the 2017-18 season numbers can't be taken seriously because it happened on 30 possessions. Gallinari was out for most of the season, so the sample size was tiny. I'm also choosing not to really put much stock into the 2015-16 numbers for Gallo either. He was still recovering from doctors carving up his knee a couple years earlier and trying to make up for lost time. His last year in Denver saw a much healthier Gallo when he was on the floor. Now, Doc Rivers is relying on Gallo a lot more often as a playmaker, similar to how Blake Griffin's role was being developed later on in his Clippers tenure.

As long as Gallinari is healthy, he'll be able to maintain a high level of efficiency. Maybe it won't be 116.1 points per game, but it'll be near the top of the league all season long. This is a lock to sustain, which is not something you can say about his body."

Thanks for reading. Hope it wasn't too long. If you're having trouble believing these numbers, every Clippers' full-game replay from 2018/19 is currently available on watchraw.com, nbafullhd.com, nbahdreplay.com, tvrex.net, or fullmatchtv.com. I don't actually expect anyone to actually go back and watch every game he played last season, but it's certainly an option if you're that incredulous.

This post does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of Welcome to Loud City or SB Nation. However, it was made by one of the members of the Welcome to Loud City community, so there is a large chance the above post is extremely ballin'!