10 Burning Thunder Questions in the Heat of August: #9
STOP!
Have you voted in today's matchup of Dean Blevins vs. Bob Barry, Jr? No? Then go, do that! Yes, before you read this article! Done? Okay.
Today's burning question comes as a bit of a "what if" question. And I won't lie. I'm not a big "what if" guy. I prefer taking the facts and analyzing them. That's why you don't see me posting lots of trade rumors or Draft Coverage. But, being a blogger, sometimes I have to dip into the depths of "what if".
And today, I'm answering a question that I get from a lot of casual fans that I meet in my travels. You know, the fans that go to a few games a year, and really don't know how the NBA works. The type of guy who will come to a Magic game and say, "Wow, Vince Carter is still playing? He was really good back in the day."
And, do you know what that question is?
#9. Why don't we trade for Chris Paul?
Answer below.
To most fans, the answer is obvious, but I'll delve into it anyway. The first and most pressing reason would have to be injuries. In the 5 seasons Chris Paul has played in the NBA, 2 of those have been injury shortened by more than 4 games. And do you know what his injury last season was? A knee tear. And that's never good. A progress report from June said that progress was "slow". Now, I'm not trying to say that his career is doomed or anything like that, but when a star player gets injured on your team, it really sucks. Thunder fans haven't had to experience this first hand, as we have the remarkable fortune of extremely healthy players. But, try to think back to the 2006-2007 Hornets season. Sure, towards the end it was nice, simply because we were chasing other teams for playoff spots. And the first few games were also nice. But, do you remember the middle? When Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic, David West, and Tyson Chandler were all out? When we had Marc Jackson and Devin Brown in the starting lineup? When, at one point, the Ford Center was nearly half-full, and the Hornets were languishing at 12-22? Yeah, that time was pretty horrible. And it's the reason we never saw a playoff run until the Thunder. So why, when we have a nearly completely healthy team, would we trade for an injury-prone PG?
Which brings me to our next point. Look at who we have at the Point Guard position. Russell Westbrook. Sure, Kevin Durant is the guy who always gets the credit for putting Oklahoma City on the map. But, he didn't do it alone. The emergence of a premier guard in Russell Westbrook has certainly helped his cause. Consequently, I can count the teams, on one hand, who wouldn't trade their current starting Point Guard for Russell Westbrook in a heartbeat. The Jazz, The Suns, The Celtics, and the Bulls. Maybe cases could be made for the Warriors or Wizards. But, the simple fact remains, we have somebody near the top already. Sure, Chris Paul is better on a purely statistical level, but simply looking at that wouldn't be taking into account the situations both players find themselves in. Chris Paul is/was on a team that asks him to create the offense, score all of the points, and guard the tougher assignments on defense. Russell Westbrook is on a team where he only has to create half of the offense, is only the secondary scorer, and leaves the tougher guarding assignments up to Thabo Sefolosha. Now, I'm not saying that if your reversed their roles that their stats would flip-flop. But, it is reasonable to assume that they're a lot closer than their stats tell you.
But, even getting past that, you have to beg the question: would Chris Paul accept a secondary role? Sure, at one point he suggested teaming up with Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. But even in that situation, he'd still be the top banana. Amare Stoudemire has always lived in the shade of Steve Nash, and would continue to do so under Paul. And Carmelo Anthony isn't the superstar he once was. A few years back, he was considered to be among the ranks of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade as the pride of the 2003 draft class, but in 3 of the past 4 years, his season has been shortened by 13 games or more through injuries or otherwise, and he has had several off-the-court problems. Plus, he's languished on several underachieving Nuggets teams. So, even with his injury history, I think Chris Paul would get top billing. Better face, and better numbers overall. On the Thunder? Not so much. He'd have to defer to the Durantula. Would he be willing? Maybe, maybe not. But it's still and underlying problem, and one that could grow over time.
Another problem, and a much more practical one, is the issue of money. Chris Paul currently makes 13.5 Million Dollars a year. Russell Westbrook currently makes 3.8 Million. That means, under current salary cap rules, that the Thunder have to give the Hornets about, oh, 8 or 9 million more dollars. And where's it going to come from? Krstic? Peterson? Collison? Pick one. And, since the Hornets will undoubtedly have no money to spare of their own, you can't pick two of the above three. You'll have to dip in the lower salary echelons. And who do you include from there? Sefolosha, Cook, and Ivey seem like the most logical candidates. So, when you get all of the balle out of the way, you're essentially trading Westbrook, Peterson, and Cook for Chris Paul. Oops, there just went our scoring off the bench. Krstic and Sefolosha? There just went 2 of your starters. Collison, Ivey, and White? Sure, but do you really want to give all of that up just for a slight upgrade at PG? All but the most die hard of Chris Paul supporters would probably say no. If you want to look at the Thunder salaries yourself, click here. And yes, you could wait until Russell Westbrook outgrows his rookie contract. But by that time, Paul will surely be off the Hornets and to a team that covets him much more than they do at the moment.
After all of this, there's only one more reason one could really throw at me if they agreed with my previous logic. What about Chris Paul's playoff experience? Okay, I'll give you that. He's played more playoff games than Russell Westbrook has, and on a higher level. But, think about who Chris Paul played with. The perfect defensive center in Tyson Chandler. The consummate scoring forward in David West. A wiley veteran in Morris Peterson. The perfect sharpshooter in Peja Stojakovic. And Pargo, Wells, and Armstrong off of the bench. That's a pretty powerful team, especially name wise. Of course, Paul did his part to help the team into the conference finals. Saying he didn't would be silly. But, he had a great supporting cast, and that's part of the reason why he got to where he was. But, back to Russell Westbrook. Do you remember how he carried the Thunder through Game 1 against the Lakers? How he hit several key shots throughout the series? How smoothly he worked with Kevin Durant? Sure, it was a first round playoff loss. But it was against the NBA Champions, and it was pretty clear he'd developed a great repertoire with his team. Do we really want to break that up? Still, if there was one valid point to make about the argument of Paul over Westbrook, I think this would be it.
I think the above arguments speak for themselves. And I think that most people reading this article have already realized that they'd prefer having Russell Westbrook on the Thunder before this point. But now, if your friend at school, at work, or at the bar rants about the old days where we used to have Chris Paul in our city, you can point them to this article. And they can summarily stop reading after the first couple paragraphs, and either give up or yell at you for making them read such trash writing.
Mission Accomplished is what I say.
Want to argue back? Want to congratulate me on a job well done? Then vote in the poll and/or drop a comment!
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Well, who could complain if it ever did happen
I mean, there’s a pretty good chance it could be a smashing success. Still, its not even worth pursuing right now. Thats the kind of move you make when KD is in his 10th year and still has no ring. Its not the move you make when you’re young and team chemistry is clicking like it is now.
Contract Value
Just a reprise of what I have said elsewhere: CP3’s value above his contract obligations is less than Westbrook’s above his contract obligations. So it’s a no-brainer: because you can’t trade them straight up anyway, no deal.
Westbrook’s production value: $16 million last year, and rising (probably will be in the Rondo $25 million value range in another couple of years).
CP3’s production value: about $30 million per year, not necessarily rising (he only produced $18 million in value last year due to injuries).
Westbrook’s salary is $4million next year, $5 million the year after that, and even with a max extension only $12 million and up after that. Still well below his actual production value.
CP3 we only know for sure for the next 2 years. $15 million and $16 million, and then free agent.
To make it a fair comparison, only look at the value for the next 2 years:
Westbrook: paid $9 million, produces ~$35-40 million.
CP3: paid $31 million, produces MAYBE $60 million.
So in trade value, you would look at the marginal return. Westbrook is worth about $30 million over the next 2 years; CP3 could be (if uninjured) worth that much as well. But then CP3 will be a free agent and Westbrook would likely resign; his salary will still be a great value at that point.
So: if salary were not included, yes, CP3 is the better player. Counting injuries and upside, perhaps not by a ton, though it is significant.
But including salary? Definitely don’t trade.
God is my Judge
god no
if you traded Westbrook for CP3 imo wouldnt be smart at all
Westbrook is on the verge of becoming one of the best pg in the NBA
CP3 is really good
one of the best and one of my favorite players
but so is Westbrook
he is a player that oozes upside and potential is fast and wants to be the best
and is alot cheaper and is a younger player
but eventually he will and deserve a new deal
im a Knicks fan but the Thunder are my 2nd team
and after brining back Isiah I think the Thunder just became my favorite NBA team
Westbrook Durantula Ibake Harden Aldrich are a very very good core
and one day your gonna bring in a max type player to compliment your system
i find this absurd
Guys i love the thunder, as it seems like everyone does now..as they should. youre the most fun to watch team in the NBA. but some of you wont trade for CHRIS PAUL? Come on, now.
the only barely acceptable reason for not trading for him would be injury concerns. I cant imagine that Paul would do anything else but fight back and prove that hes the best point guard in the league. So if you had the opportunity to acquire him from the Hornets, you need to do it. I really like westbrook, and hes gona be good. but this is chris paul. hes a finished product and hes only three years older…AND MUCH BETTER..
Westbrook, green, mo pete, and krstic for Paul and Posey. the hornets could then see what the market is for Westbrook. maybe a westbrook and peja deal for Danny granger.
i dont think u guys would do that trade, and that concerns me. Your guys contract and salary situations are now remedied irrelavent with the guaranteed success that Paul would bring. who cares about him makin 15 mill when ur definitely in the second round, possibly even giving the lakers a run for their money in the first year of this acquisition.
instead of developing unbreakable emotional ties to players on your team, u have to think of team success. the only GUARANTEED UNTRADEABLE player u have is Durant, and rightfully so. He is absolutely amazing. pair him with paul and a developing team of harden, ibaka, and aldrich…i think u take over as the best team in the west by year 2 of a trade for Paul. And i think the hypothetical trade i just laid out is realisitic and both teams would do it.
Westbrook is really good and still has potential, that is unquestionable. But what is also unquestionable is how unreal Chris Paul is how he is basically a Hall of Famer barring injury. This is easy. I dont think there is any “reality” to any type of Paul to Thunder discussion. However, in a purely hypothetical sense, dont overthink this and make the deal.
by saveourbluths on Aug 6, 2010 10:16 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
SOB
i think you hit my thought to the T. Look, I love love love RW0 (no homo) but a healthy CP3 is the best PG in the league .Period! Injuries scare the shit out of me too but thats why we have Maynor who is much more than a serviceable backup he could prolly start for several team and is only in his second year contract. THAT MEANS WE HAVE A SAFETY NET. A huge one to boot. That would allow me to do a trade for CP3 with no hesitation. I promise you that he and KD would be a marketing Giant; Just as much so as the holy threesome in “south beach”. Partner this with a winning season with one of the loudest fan bases in the NBA i dont see him leaving for greener pastures. We might also loose our cap flexibility but it doesn’t matter we have our two major stars in CP3 and KD.
Westbrook+ Cook+Collinson+2nd rounder for CP3 sounds about right to me.!
How the hell did that happen? I am Trailblazer fan to the core but I love me some OKC THunder!!! Must be the Hometown pride I feel.
I'll Say it now so you guys can know I'm a true follower: "In Pioli I Trust"
Go Chiefs!!!!!
Maynor is an alright fill-in PG
But as a starter? He’s average, at best. He can’t score, and he’s an average defender. He handles well, but with him and Sefolosha in the back court, it would make for a very stagnant offense. Just because we have an alright backup doesn’t mean we should trade for a player who will be here half of the time. I mean, the Hornets had a nice backup last year in Darren Collison, and they missed the playoffs.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
I'll address your points as I see them.
First of all, no matter how much of a warrior you are, you’re always limited by your body. Tracy McGrady? Extremely hardworking player, career ruined by injuries. Grant Hill? Same thing. But this is a knee injury, you say? Not ankles or back? Well then, take a look at what knee injuries that require surgery do to players. Just read this article. Production almost always goes down, even if players recover. Need a more recent example? Shaun Livingston went from rising star to fringe roster player after his injury. Of course, it wasn’t as serious, but it was a knee injury nonetheless.
Westbrook, Green, Mo Pete, and Krstic for Paul and Posey? Are you kidding? We just traded 3 starters and a potential player next year for a somewhat better PG and a 33 Year Old Has-Been whose production severely declined last year on a short-handed Hornets team. We’d have to give some fringe players some very serious minutes without Green. Who would we look to as our third scoring option? It’s just a bad situation all-around.
Guaranteed success? Like the guaranteed success that put the Hornets as a 7 seed two years ago?
And I do have an unbreakable emotional tie. To Chris Paul. As a person, I prefer him much more over Russell Westbrook, and admit that when he’s at his best, he’s better than Westbrook. But Westbrook knows this team, has room to grow, and was a hero in last year’s playoffs.
Chris Paul is a Hall-of-Famer, that’s for sure. But whether Westbrook is one is To Be Determined, and I think that’s how the Thunder like it.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
idk that would be the worst trade
westbrook and green for CP3 and Posey
jesus
CP3 is a HOF already?
wow pump the brakes!
so does that make Deron Williams the MJ of PG’s?
I like CP3 but Derron Williams has had a little more sucess and show up CP3 on a consistant basis
just pump the brakes on HOF talk
One more thing is CP is like prawn to injury. Or maybe not??
The NETS is like my own sense of direction..
The MAGIC made me realize that one..
If you've paid attention to my posts...
and I’m sure most of you haven’t, I’ve always shouted about how I would love to trade for Chris Paul. He is without a doubt one of my favorite, if not my favorite, non-Thunder player.
That being said, with the recent injuries and the association with Lebron and his people, I would be hesitant to do it. Not to mention, Russy really took his game to the next level at the end of the year.
Someone said something about not having unbreakable emotional ties with players, but that’s kind of silly. I don’t root for the name Thunder, I root for the guys who make up the team. I understand that players will come and go. It’s part of the game, but they’re not souless commodities.
Follow me on Twitter (Kevin Durant does!) @electricpencils
Yep. I have the same dilemma here.
I wish we could trade for a lot of old Warriors Castoffs, like Adonal Foyle. But of course, doing that in real life would make no sense.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan

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