Serge Ibaka's Historic Shot-Blocking Promises Bright Future
by Evan Dunlap on Apr 21, 2010 2:40 AM CDT
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PrintHi, everyone. It's Ben Q. Rock from Orlando Pinstriped Post, SB Nation's Orlando Magic blog.
I'm here today to write about Serge Ibaka, who piqued my interested when I covered the Orlando Pro Summer League last July. I thought then that his length, athleticism, and skill would ensure he had a promising career ahead of him.
Watching him in the playoffs against the Lakers has convinced me that I was right, though I'm not here to gloat, or anything. In blocking 7 shots last night, he became the youngest player to swat at least as many shots in a postseason game, breaking Dwight Howard's record by almost 2 full years.
That feat got me thinking bigger picture. Just how special a shot-blocker is Ibaka anyway? To find out, I put these endpoints into a season search on basketball-reference.com:
Block rate > 5.0% (Ibaka's at 5.5 this season)
Total minutes played > 1300 (Ibaka's at 1323)
As you can see, Andrew Bynum and Josh Smith put up similar stats at 19--a year younger than Ibaka--but neither exceeded Ibaka's 5.5% block rate. Andrei Kirilenko (5.9% at age 20), Shaquille O'Neal (5.7% at age 20) and Smith (6.2% at age 20) were the only players to best Ibaka's block rate at the same age. That's one Hall-of-Famer and two fringe All-Stars, though Smith somehow got snubbed from this year's team.
The conclusion to draw here is that Ibaka's doing things defensively that few people have ever done at his age. The next step for him is to cut back the fouling; only Bynum fouled nearly as much per 36 minutes as Ibaka does (5.3). Once he does that, and learns to do enough offensively that he can play longer stretches at a time, he's looking at a future All-Star berth. To me, he's the Thunder's best long-term option at power forward. Should Ibaka emerge, Oklahoma City could move Jeff Green, a natural small forward, to the bench.
I look forward to Ibaka taking on a greater role next season, and to his keying future success for the Thunder. But the great thing is that he's a treat to watch, even now. And we can't buy him a drink in this country until September. Incredible.
This post does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of Welcome to Loud City or SB Nation. However, it was made by one of the members of the Welcome to Loud City community, so there is a large chance the above post is extremely ballin'!
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thanks for the statistical reference on the tremendous upside Serge has defensively. The only part that I would disagree on is limiting Serge to being strictly a pf as over the next couple of seasons he has the ability to finish filling out his frame, adding some weight to it and could play the center position. While guys the size of Shaq, Bynum and even Dwight would probably still give him some trouble in the post I think he could match up w most of the other 5’s in the league. The key to playing him at the 5 for me will be less about Serge himself (other than his foul rate) and more about getting him consistent rebounding around him as Green and Durant have both shown an ability to rebound but dont do it every night.
Yup..
Ibaka is gonna be a beast. He is on pace to become one of the leagues premier shotblockers and shows a lot of potential to be a solid offensive player as well. The fact that Ibaka is also making peanuts for the next four seasons makes him even more valuable.
I definitely think he can still add some bulk to that frame, he is still only 20 and quite lean right now. Once he does, I don’t think any matchup will give him problems.
The 4/5 spot is the most intriguing position for OKC going forward. As you mentioned, Green is a natural 3. The whole point of drafting Green was that he had tremendous versatility. Since it was unclear exactly what position Durant was gonna play, they took Green (a good forward in a great forward class) assuming he could fit in and contribute without constraining the teams options going forward. Green could get a lot of minutes off the bench playing these three roles:
1. Spelling Durant as the 3 for 5-6 minutes a game.
2. Moving Durant to the 2 for 5-6 minutes a game.
3. Spelling whoever the starting PF is for 18-20 minutes a game.
That is a little over 30 minutes right there and he can take that number into the 40’s depending on matchups, whether he is hot shooting, or if there are injuries..
Ibaka could figure as a 4 or 5 in the long run, this contributes to the mystique at this position now because Ibaka is a good player with out-of-this world potential. How good Ibaka gets and what position he ends up in are important as-yet-undecided issues for this franchise..
While one could make the argument that OKC should use their cap space to go after a sign and trade for Bosh (they have two first rounders to offer) or a trade for Al Jefferson to bring in that consistent inside rebounding and scoring presence immediately, I don’t think this is a good idea and I don’t think they will do it.
Presti has focused on conservative value plays and I expect him to continue like that this summer. The thunder are still 3-5 years away from their current roster reaching peak, and will probably not decline for 10 years. They have the luxury of seeking value. They don’t need to unload anyone and they don’t have any major holes in their lineup.
Next year is the final year on each of Collison and Krstic’s contracts, so I expect them to go into next season with much the same front court. They will have those two expiring deals to play with should they feel like they want to make a move at the deadline to bring in a veteran 4/5, or they could wait until the summer.
Westbrook/Harden-Sefolosha/Durant/Green/Ibaka could be their best look next year..
But how nice would something like
Westbrook/Harden-Sefolosha/Boozer/Ibaka with Green as a sub look. Maybe even Lee, Jefferson, or Bosh.. yikes.
by michaelfox99 on Apr 21, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
if they wanted bosh and i dont think they should give him max money which toronto has already said they will, why would it have to be a S&T. Sign and trades are mostly used by teams that would be over the cap otherwise and have to shed some salary to get the guy. If Bosh wants to come here and refuses to sign in Toronto we dont have to give up anything but money. at least that’s my take.
by Michael Gleich on Apr 21, 2010 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Moved to the Front Page!!!
Thanks for sharing Ben Q Rock! I’ve been following Ibaka every since we draft him. I knew he was special, but I envisioned him as a Bird-Man clone. While similarities do exist between the two (major shot blocking of the bench, high energy, airplane/bird flap arm movement after big plays) I really do believe Ibaka’s ceiling is much higher. Maybe Dwight Howard-like?
Concerning his position, there is a lot of debate if Ibaka is a 4 or a 5. I really hope Ibaka can be the regular starting center for this team. I’m not certain that he needs to beef up, but with his strength, speed, hops, and fearlessness I’m sure he can hold his own.
Your friendly neighborhood Loud City resident.
He does need to add a few pounds
But I like him as our 5.
Follow me on Twitter (Kevin Durant does!) @electricpencils
by ElectricPencils on Apr 21, 2010 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions
im not talking huge weight but another 10-15 pounds would help him in fighting for position on the block. For now I would put his ceiling maybe at a Camby until his offense gets more consistent. If it does maybe he becomes a name familiar to fans of the prior incarnation of this franchise, Shawn Kemp, the Seattle version.
by Michael Gleich on Apr 22, 2010 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Now that you say it...
Yeah, Kemp is a reasonable expectation once he matures as a scorer.
Follow me on Twitter (Kevin Durant does!) @electricpencils
by ElectricPencils on Apr 22, 2010 1:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Yao Ming wouldn't opting out of his contract with the Rockets
if OKC is willing to sign him for more than 18mil/yr…… :-)
Hmmm
not bad piece of statistics to look at.
Very interesting to see if he actually becomes
of more value to the team, meaning they keep him.
If i had a team i would certainly want this guy on it, very athletic, very tenacious
and has so much upside.
"minds sharpens minds, like steel sharpens steel"
I wouldn't say JJ is.
I don’t really get the comparison myself.
Your friendly neighborhood Loud City resident.
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