The Deep Playoffs: A Pipe Dream, or Impending Reality?
At the beginning of the season, the attitude of even the most unabashed homers of the Oklahoma City Thunder was that of hopefulness. Maybe the Thunder can get to the first round, but if not, we're still a young team. To predict anything over 40 wins would be a invitation to get heckled by one's friends, and to predict winning a round would be considered nothing more than a joke. But now, the Thunder are 65 games in, and they've already reached 41 wins. They just beat the team that was directly ahead of them in the standings, putting them in the mix for the 4th seed. And the division leaders, the Nuggets, are only 2 games out of reach.
Detractors might claim that we are only a few losses from falling behind into the 4th seed, and that's true. But the fact remains that the Thunder have a good possibility of gaining home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and that possibility should be explored by all means.
For starters, we should look at our remaining schedule, and see how it shakes out.
Below: Remaining Schedule Predictions, Possible Playoff Matchups
Remaining schedule:
@ Charlotte- I'd say it's a win, given our past history. They'll be fighting for the playoffs, but we've dealt with them handily before. W
@ Toronto- They're too outside oriented to ever defeat us. W
@ Indiana- Please, baba. W
vs. San Antonio- I know the pressure's on, but without Tony Parker, I don't think the Spurs will beat us, even with all of their inside firepower. If we can shut down Ginobili, it's lights out for them. W
vs. Houston- I said in the early going that we'd never win against Houston this season. I'm sticking to my guns. L
vs. Los Angeles Lakers- As much as I'd LIKE for it to happen, it's not gonna happen. L
vs. Portland- It will be the most boring game of all time, and we'll lose, but Portland won't score over 85. L
@ Philadelphia- An easy win after a week of hell. W
@ Boston- They've had a rough go of it lately, but by now, they'll be back and ready to roll. L
@ Dallas- We've dominated this team in it's current iteration. No reason to think we can't do so again. W
vs. Minnesota- It's Damien Wilkins again! W
@ Utah- We own the Jazz, in every way possible. Unless AK47 is back. W
vs. Denver- 2nd end of a back to back. We couldn't win this game in our dreams. L
vs. Phoenix- I have a feeling about the first win against the Suns in the Ford Center. W
@ Golden State- Golden State will have nothing to lose, but they'll have nothing to gain, either. W
@ Portland- I know it's kind of silly to predict a win against the Trailblazers on the road and a loss at home, but hey, that's the NBA. W
vs. Memphis- They've given us trouble before, but their season will be over by this point. W
Last 17 Games: 12-5
Final Record: 53-29
Last year, this would have landed us in the 5 seed, smack dab in the middle. Another win, and we would have been tied for 2nd. The year before, we would have gotten 7th. 2 years ago, it would have been 4th.
My point? The Thunder can land anywhere. No matter how you mix and match, predict and ponder, or wonder and worry, you're not going to get a straight answer or reasonable prediction concerning the playoff situation.
Assuming we can get any seed from 1 to 8, I present our potential playoff matchups, in descending order from best possible to worst possible. I will also give the likelihood we'll face the opposing team, ranging from Very Likely, to Likely, to Somewhat Likely, to Not Likely, to Not Likely at All. Also, I'm assuming that the current 8 teams will make it in.
#1 Best Possible Matchup:
The Utah Jazz (43-24)
Likelihood we'll face them: Very Likely
Why We'll Win: We've beaten the Jazz in 3 straight matchups this season. The closest loss had horrible offensive performances by everybody but Kevin Durant. They have no defensive answer for Kevin Durant. Their current players are not known for going deep in the playoffs. They frequently have a player injured.
Why We'll Lose: All of the losses have been 10 points or closer. The losses have been because the Jazz have been missing a player and/or missing significant offensive performances by their big guys, Boozer and Okur. Wes Matthews has found a way around Sefolosha's defense. Nearly everyone on their roster has had a good performance against the Thunder during one game or another.
Final Verdict: The Jazz are an experienced team, but they can never quite put it together against the Thunder. They'll win a couple against the Thunder in a playoff series, but the Thunder will definitely manage to keep the upper hand. Win in 6 or 7 Games.
#2:
The Dallas Mavericks (45-22)
Likelihood we'll face them: Likely
Why We'll Win: Games against the Mavericks used to be intense matchups, but the addition of Caron Butler has only weakened the Mavericks against the Thunder. Caron Butler can't stand Sefolosha defensively, and nobody can take advantage of matching up against Kevin Durant. Jeff Green has succeeded in scoring against and pestering Dirk Nowitzki on defense.
Why We'll Lose: The big win we've had against them was because they were still adjusting to having Caron Butler. They've been steamrolling their way to a higher seed as of late. The team is highly experienced and unlikely to lose in a playoff situation against a bunch of young players.
Final Verdict: It remains to be seen whether the tall, stagnant Mavericks are truly weak against the Thunder, but for now, the verdict remains that they are. I'd say we could beat them in an epic 7 Game Series.
#3:
The Phoenix Suns (42-26)
Likelihood we'll face them: Somewhat Likely
Why We'll Win: We've won against them on their home floor, and the loss against them came after a horrible 4th quarter collapse. We've usually been able to slow down their guards. They don't have an answer for Kevin Durant. Krstic is always a factor in these games.
Why We'll Lose: They've never lost to us in the Ford Center, providing a bit of a curse stigma. We haven't been successful in stopping the Stoudamire/Frye Combo. Jeff Green isn't very efficient against the Suns. This team is very experienced and successful in the playoffs.
Final Verdict: I might be reading into this curse thing a bit too much, but the fact remains that the Suns have always been able to come back against us during crucial junctures, and we've never been able to close the door on them. During the playoffs, I have a feeling that they'll be a bit more careful to not let that get past them. Nevertheless, home court doesn't affect our play, so I think the Thunder can win in 7 Games.
#4:
The Portland Trail Blazers (41-28)
Likelihood we'll face them: Not Likely
Why We'll Win: We're less injury-prone then they are. We've shown that we can out-defense them. For every bit they negate out scorers, we negate their guards with good perimeter defense.
Why We'll Lose: This team was built under the same philosophy as the Thunder, but they're a couple years farther down the road. They've found a way to stop Kevin Durant, when they're healthy. They've got one of the deepest rosters in the league. Literally any one of their players could step up and be the offensive X-Factor for them on any given night.
Final Verdict: This team has too much on us. We'd be able to win a few games going into a playoff series, but I really doubt the Thunder could win a series. Trail Blazers in 6.
#5:
The San Antonio Spurs (40-25)
Likelihood we'll face them: Not Likely
Why We'll Win: They're old, and any player might go out at any given time. They are extremely reliant on 4 players. We can shut down all of their players but Duncan and Blair. Krstic can negate some of Duncan's scoring.
Why We'll Lose: We can't shut down Duncan and Blair. Their scrubs always find ways to score against us. These guys have been to the finals before, and are saving a lot of their mustard for the playoffs. If Tony Parker doesn't score, he's a great assist man. Their offense is largely based on getting inside, and that's the Thunder's main defensive weakness.
Final Verdict: The Spurs have ways to exploit our flaws by charging on the inside, and they know how to win playoff series. I sincerely doubt we'll ever win a series against their current iteration. Spurs in 5.
#6:
The Los Angeles Fakers (50-18)
Likelihood we'll face them: Not Likely at All
Why We'll Win: Kevin Durant can offset Kobe's scoring. Thabo Sefolosha has been successful in slowing Kobe down. James Harden can provide a nice splash of offense in these games.
Why We'll Lose: We have no answer for Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum. Kevin Durant cannot hit as many big shots as Kobe can. They're far more experienced. They have a lot more star power. Their only defensive weakness (Derek Fisher) cannot be exploited by our offense.
Final Verdict: The Fakers are superior to us in almost every way, and we'll be lucky to win more than a game. We'll play them close most games, but this team knows how to close the door. Fakers in 5.
#7:
The Denver Nuggets (46-22)
Likelihood we'll face them: Somewhat Likely
Why We'll Win: We've beaten them once.
Why We'll Lose: Pretty much everything else. We only won because Carmelo Anthony was out, and even then, they still challenged for the win. They have Nene and Martin who can kill us on the inside. They have J.R. Smith, who isn't affected by Sefolosha at all. Carmelo Anthony negates Kevin Durant. Chauncey Billups is an excellent orchestrator, and isn't phased by Westbrook. We settle for jumpshots against them too often.
Final Verdict: We should avoid this matchup at all costs. Nuggets in 4.
Bottom Line:
The 2nd round of the Playoffs is a reality. The teams that we're likely to go against (the Jazz, Mavericks, and Suns) are all beatable. The only death matchup we are likely to get is one against the Nuggets, which would be an absolute nightmare. Nonetheless, I feel that the odds of getting into the 2nd round are in the Thunder's favour. As far as getting to the conference finals, it gets kind of iffy from there on out. In all likelihood, the only beatable team that would survive that far would be the Mavericks, and it's unlikely that we'll face them at that point.
I guess my entire point here is that we should stop thinking in the mindset of, "This season has been great, as long as we get to see the playoffs, I'm happy." Instead, we need to think in the mindset of potential playoff matchups, and whether it's feasible to get to the 2nd round. Because it's just as easy to have a couple of injuries or a couple of bad trades and fall from being the NBA's hottest team to being old news. And being old news really stinks.
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From a Spurs fan,
In the playoffs, you don’t make statements like “we can shut down everyone except Duncan and Blair”. Duncan will be efficient. His game will be another notch up. But it is not the same as before.
Blair is a total rook. I am guessing this playoffs will be a nightmare for him.
And usually teams who think they will shut down Manu, will pay one way or the other :D
I hope you guys do well this postseason.
Yeah, even though I'm a long-time NBA Fan
I’m a playoff rookie, as my team (the Warriors) has only been to the playoffs once, so it’ll be a learning experience for me. Still, I don’t think regular season trends will be totally negated. And given that Blair will be playing agaisnt a young team like us, I don’t think he’ll have that much of a problem. But we’ll see.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
hey, there was no need for name calling.
the lakers are the lakers. lakeshow fans are some of the classiest fans i know and from what i can tell, they REALLY like kevin durant.
anyways, if i were being truthful, i think utah is the only team we could really win against in the playoffs. plus, utah fans are some of the doucheiest fans i’ve ever seen my whole entire life. i do really like deron williams though. no way in hell are we getting past the mavs especially with the way they’re playing right now. spurs and trailblazers are kinda iffy for me. spurs look like they could drop any minute but they’re a persistent bunch of old men. the blazers are deeper and i just don’t see us getting past them in a series.
the thunder are a very young inexperienced team which bites you more in the butt you would think.
im already very pleased with this season so whatever happens in the playoffs this year, i’ll probably be ok with. next year though, get ready for some thunder. :)
lakeshow fans classy??? ?
"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy
by Honka Playboy on Mar 21, 2010 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah thats kinda false
There might be a classy laker fan out there but I haven’t seen them yet.
If we win a title, I promise not to hate on anyone associated with the Blazers for 1 full season - jksnake99
Growing up a Warriors Fan
I’ve been trained to hate the Lakers. They always roll into the Oracle and by the end of the game are chanting “Let’s go Lakers!” while the Warriors fans are filing out. The fans also easily have the biggest contingent ever to come to the Ford Center for a game. In general, they don’t know a lot about basketball, and tend to be real bandwagoners. If the Lakers aren’t absolutely dominating the league, no one shows up. Granted, Thunder fans aren’t very educated about the NBA yet, but they have an excuse, as they’ve only had NBA basketball since 2005, and they attend games even if the team is doing atrociously.
I guess I’m being a big basketball snob by dissing the Lakers so much, but in the end, just remember that I’ve never seen my team (whether it be the Thunder or Warriors) beat the Lakers, and it can lead to me developing a bit of an inferiority complex.
And also, yes, Utah fans are probably much worse than Laker fans. Just jerks.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
"this is the NBA"
that is why you “predict” losing to the Blazers at home then beating them on the road at the end of the season? Come on, that takes away all your credibility and turns your “predictions” into “guesses”…. or at best “hunches”
Kobe sucks
by La Marc Gasol dridge on Mar 21, 2010 6:43 PM CDT reply actions
let me try your method
I “predict” the Thunder go 9-8 in the last 17 and finish 50-32, and lose to the Mavs in the first round
Kobe sucks
by La Marc Gasol dridge on Mar 21, 2010 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions
There are other factors
like streaks. I felt the Thunder were in the middle of a losing stint, so I predicted a loss above, and I thought the Thunder would just need the game more. I know it sounded a bit off, but predictions are nothing more than guesses or hunches, are they? There’s no way to know how things are going to turn out a month from now, and things like a loss at home and a win on the road aren’t that uncommon.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
I'm on Zorgon's side
and, looking at our (Blazers) schedule, I can see his reasoning. no call to look like a L*ker fan on somebody else’s blog, next thing you know, BEdgers will be counted amongst the reviled and hated Jazz and L*ker fans
I like you team....
but I just don’t think you can win a playoff series. Do you have anyone on your roster who has been in the playoffs? The playoffs are just a totally different animal.
Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.
Kevin Ollie almost won a championship! :-P
But besides him, I don’t think so. I know that we have next to 0 playoff experience, but when the Hornets beat the Mavericks in 07-08, how much experience did that team have? You had Stojakovic and Petersen, but any yardbird could tell you that Chris Paul and David West, two guys with 0 playoff experience, were the main catalysts for the team.
I know it’s usually the more experienced team that advances, but usually, if you own a team in the regular season, you own a team in the playoffs, too. Remember the Warriors of 06-07?
But yeah, with the way things are going, we might be staring down the face of a matchup with the Nuggets or Lakers, which are both pretty unwinnable as far as I’m concerned. And maybe I went a bit off of the rails in suggesting that we could beat the Mavericks or Suns, but why not? Every game we’ve had has been competitive.
In the end, if all else fails, I’d still contend that we’d beat the Jazz if the saw them.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
*if we saw them.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
playoffs
Dude, I hate to burst your bubble but so far you have only been right on 1 of the 4 games that you have predicted with your only correct prediction being that tht htunder would beat the raptors. I also think that you might be jinxing the team by writing about the thunders playoff oppents when they havent even clinched a spot yet. Believe me, i want them to make the playoffs but at the rate they are playing now they wont. You also have to realize that the hornets and rockets are only 4 games away from stealing our spot with 13 games left and both of those teams have more experince than the thunder. I am just afraid that you may have jinxed the thunder.
I've been predicting games all season, and most of the time I've been right.
And I’m no homer. Look, I’m predicting the Thunder to lose their next 3 straight. I hope I’m wrong, but it is what I think will happen. I’m not saying my predictions are infalliable, and I do admit that I’ve been mostly wrong so far. If I had to rewrite this article now, I’d admit we have a higher chance of getting a lower seed. But I’m not going to hold back on what I’m saying because the Thunder might be “jinxed” by it.
I can almost guarantee you that none of the players, coaches, or even front office men are going to read this article. It’s not like some cosmic force in the universe is going to alter the way they play. Even if a player did happen to read this, they’re not going to be in the middle of shooting a game winning shot and then have my article come to them in the corner of their mind out of nowhere and then force them to miss.
Lastly, there’s no way the Hornets or Rockets or Grizzlies come back to overtake us. The Grizzlies are 5 Games back, the Rockets 6, and the Hornets 9 and a half. In order for the closest team, the Grizzlies, to overtake us, we could have to go 7-6 or less, and they would have to go 13-0. Realistically, it would take a total collapse, like 4 wins or less for us to lose our spot in the playoffs. And it might very well happen, but by the same token, these teams are going to have to play well above .500 ball to overtake us. I’m not going to say it’s absolutely impossible, but I am going to say it’s highly unlikely.
In conclusion, I guess I’d say that just because we’re in a small slide right now doesn’t mean we’re in a funk due to lack of experience. We played the Spurs extremely tight. We lost to an extremely hot Bobcats team that has shown it’s ability to beat higher caliber opponents than us. And yeah, we got destroyed by the Pacers, but sometimes losses like that happen. The best team that ever played, the 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls, lost 10 games in their season. One of them was to the Raptors, an expansion team that year which finished with 21 wins. The also lost to 8 seed caliber teams in the Nuggets, Suns, and Heat. In an 82 Game Schedule, bad losses just happen sometimes.
In any case, I’m not perfect, and some of my predictions were wrong. If I had to rework it, I’d have us winning and losing the same games, but we’re probably gonna fall around the 6 or 7 seed, and we’re probably not going to win a round. But if I was given the opportunity to rewrite the article 4 games ago, I’d keep it exactly the same. I’m no Nostradamus, I’m just doing the best I can. And I’m also rambling way too much,
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
nostradamus, lol
ok. i respect your feed back to my first ever blog comment. its just that i havent had any one of my favorite teams to make the postseason this year and the thunder is the only chance i have since i am a cleveland indians fan and that season is already over before it has begun. i know that nobody from the thunder organization will ever read this but i am just highly supersticious and didnt want a playoff trip to be jinxed. thaks for your feedback to my comment though. I do enjoy reading what you write because i can never see any thunder games because i live in North Carolina and espn, for some reason or another, doesnt show any highlights or talk about them. Keep up the information and reporting and i will keep reading. Thanks.
Thanks for the support.
And I’m sorry if they end up jinxed, but judging by the last two days, they’re doing exactly the opposite of what I tell them to, lol. I’m sure they’ll be fine.
Tony.psd = Da Man
Manager of Welcome to Loud City
#1 Warriors, Thunder, and Adonal Foyle Fan
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