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Musing on projected win totals, 2010 Playoffs

I’m expecting 37 wins and wouldn’t be surprised with bubbling right around .500. 33 and under and I’m disappointed. Here's how I got there: If you accept that the Thunder were a true talent 20-30 team (as opposed to a 23-59 team), that’s a win percentage of .400. Meaning the team that took to the court in the second half would, over a full season, net 32.8 wins. I’m tacking 5 wins onto my expectations because of the addition of James Harden, full seasons from Livingston, Krstic, White, and Thabo, and improved play from Westbrook.


Now, say OKC gets lucky and reaches the upper end of my projection. How do the playoff chances look?


LA, Denver, Utah, Portland, Dallas, and San Antonio are all locks. These teams are all clearly better than OKC and only catastrophe would allow one of them to fall out of the playoffs. New Orleans is a team in trouble, but they still won 49 games last year, and if they can manage to not take on too much water, they should be fine for a 7th or 8th seed. Now, what has to happen for either Houston to bubble out?

I’ve learned to never underestimate the Houston Rockets. Honestly, there’s nothing this team can do that would really shock me. They could finish with the best record in the league and I’d shrug my shoulders and say “that’s Daryl Morey.” On the other hand, their top two scoring options are… Luis Scola and Trevor Ariza? Really? I know that team makes its cheddar on defense, but wow. And now with Yao out, who’s manning the middle? 6′8″ Joey Dorsey? 6′6″ Chuck Hayes? I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say that Houston has a tough road back to the playoffs, and it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see them scraping along the bottom of the lottery barrel.

To my mind, Phoenix, Golden State and OKC are the only teams in the West that can feasibly make a run at Houston’s spot. I don’t think it would take a huge amount of luck for OKC to have a better season than both Phoenix and Golden State. Some luck, yes, but it doesn’t seem all that far fetched.

This post does not reflect the views of the staff of Welcome to Loud City or SB Nation. However, it was made by one of the members of the Welcome to Loud City community, so there is a large chance the above post is extremely ballin'!

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I totally agree.

I was actually hoping that the Spurs would have slid out of the playoffs, but now they have some exciting additions and are locks like you predicted.

2010 Western Conference standings: 1. Spurs, 2. Lakers, 3. Portland, 4. Denver, 5. Utah, 6. Dallas, 7. Thunder, 8. Warriors. I can see that.

Given Ibaka’s strong performance in Orlando, he has a high chance of being on the roster next year. Having an athletic big man coming of the bench would help our overall wins as well.

Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D

by daddydai on Jul 9, 2009 9:12 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't see New Orleans falling out of the playoffs.

The team’s in trouble, definitely, but even if Chandler doesn’t play a minute this year, Chris Paul and David West are enough to win 45 or so.

by sammy on Jul 10, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think Paul and West are amazing...

I just don’t the rest of their roster can make it happen.

Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D

by daddydai on Jul 10, 2009 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

They won 49 games last year with Tyson Chandler out for half the season and playing poorly the rest.

They haven’t lost any real talent this year. I don’t see why they would fall off dramatically.

by sammy on Jul 10, 2009 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

37 wins in the East

and we’d be like the 4th seed.

It’s tougher out west.

I honestly think the Thunder can make the playoffs as the 8th seed this year, especially if we get some solid play at the 5 spot.

by ElectricPencils on Jul 9, 2009 9:32 PM CDT reply actions  

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