I’m expecting 37 wins and wouldn’t be surprised with bubbling right around .500. 33 and under and I’m disappointed. Here's how I got there: If you accept that the Thunder were a true talent 20-30 team (as opposed to a 23-59 team), that’s a win percentage of .400. Meaning the team that took to the court in the second half would, over a full season, net 32.8 wins. I’m tacking 5 wins onto my expectations because of the addition of James Harden, full seasons from Livingston, Krstic, White, and Thabo, and improved play from Westbrook.

Now, say OKC gets lucky and reaches the upper end of my projection. How do the playoff chances look?

LA, Denver, Utah, Portland, Dallas, and San Antonio are all locks. These teams are all clearly better than OKC and only catastrophe would allow one of them to fall out of the playoffs. New Orleans is a team in trouble, but they still won 49 games last year, and if they can manage to not take on too much water, they should be fine for a 7th or 8th seed. Now, what has to happen for either Houston to bubble out?

I’ve learned to never underestimate the Houston Rockets. Honestly, there’s nothing this team can do that would really shock me. They could finish with the best record in the league and I’d shrug my shoulders and say “that’s Daryl Morey.” On the other hand, their top two scoring options are… Luis Scola and Trevor Ariza? Really? I know that team makes its cheddar on defense, but wow. And now with Yao out, who’s manning the middle? 6′8″ Joey Dorsey? 6′6″ Chuck Hayes? I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say that Houston has a tough road back to the playoffs, and it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see them scraping along the bottom of the lottery barrel.

To my mind, Phoenix, Golden State and OKC are the only teams in the West that can feasibly make a run at Houston’s spot. I don’t think it would take a huge amount of luck for OKC to have a better season than both Phoenix and Golden State. Some luck, yes, but it doesn’t seem all that far fetched.