Should the Oklahoma City Thunder Trade or Sign?
by daddydai on Jun 28, 2009 7:00 AM CDT
20 comments
Thinking about the Thunder roster, I’m almost convinced that we will pursue a polished big man through trade. The Oklahoma City Thunder has too many trade assets not to use them this summer, especially with many other teams trying to clear cap space. Should Presti use more cap space, or use our existing cap space more wisely by trading unneeded roster fillers? Even though I love Gortat, when it comes to cap space I’m starting to think reduce, reuse, recycle.
Here is a break down of our possible roster by position:
PG – Russell Westbrook, Shaun Livingston, Earl Watson, Chucky Atkins
SG – James Harden*, Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Weaver, Damien Wilkins, Robert Vaden*
SF – Kevin Durant
PF – Jeff Green, D.J. White, Nick Collison, Serge Ibaka*
C – Nenad Krstic, B.J. Mullens*, DeVon Hardin*
Expiring Contracts – Desmond Mason, Malik Rose, Robert Swift
* - not under contract
Looking at the glut of guards that we could have next year, I feel that a trade must happen. Russell, Harden, and Thabo are obviously the key guards on this team. Vaden may not make the roster by the end of the summer. Weaver and Livingston are obvious prospects in training with low-cost contracts, so the likelihood of them being dealt is slim. Atkins is likely to be waived but that still leaves us with Watson and Wilkins as benchwarmers. Next year Watson and Wilkins will get paid a combined $9.9M to play off the bench.
Presti could deepen the bench by using trades. Yet when looking at Watson and Wilkins as trade assets, there is a chance of either receive too many players or more overpaid benchwarmers. Personally I would rather have a $10M center than $10M worth of reservists. If the focus is on a center, the team could address a major need without spending more cap space while freeing up more spots on the roster. The Thunder should have around $12M in cap space during this summer, but we also need to clear our roster spots to make room for new talent. This off-season we already have around 18 players vying for spots on the roster. Adding free agents into the mix could only complicate the scenario.
With a trade, we could get the big man we need and still save for the next big hurdle in growing the team. One interesting trade rumor involves Marcus Camby. Since there is a new #23 in the Clippers lineup, Camby is likely to be moved. Lets say the Clippers take Wilkins and Watson, and send OKC Camby and a maybe second round pick. Yes, Camby is old and only has next season left on his contract, but he still has value as a defensive player and mentor. After reading some insightful comments on WTLC, I feel Camby could be more valuable as a trading piece during the next trade deadline. Many teams will be looking for an expiring contract for the 2010 free agency smorgasbord. Playoff contenders maybe willing to trade for a defensive specialist of Camby’s caliber. So if the Thunder could parlay Camby into new talent and few more draft picks, I’d be really excited. Especially if those draft picks are for next years' draft. Just in case you didn't know, the 2010 draft has seven centers projected in the top twenty picks. If Camby isn't traded, his expiring contract would give OKC around $22M to attract Chris Bosh in 2010. Oklahoma has to be more appealing to a Texan than Toronto, right? Sure Camby isn’t our long-term solution, but he could be a step in the right direction if Presti plays his hand correctly.
Just to compare numbers, I've included Camby and Gortat's 40 min pace adjusted stats from the 2008/2009 season. Given Camby's age he still is a productive player. The biggest difference between the two is in Free Throw %, Assits, and Personal Fouls, which Camby leads in all of those categories.
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
| Year | League | Name | GP | Min | Pts | FG | FGA | FG% | 2Pt | 2PtA | 2P% | 3Pt | 3PtA | 3P% | FTM | FTA | FT% | Off | Def | TOT | Asts | Stls | Blks | TOs | PFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008/09 | NBA | Marcin Gortat | 63 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 56.9 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 56.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 100.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 57.8 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 5.6 |
| 2008/09 | NBA | Marcus Camby | 62 | 31.0 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 51.2 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 51.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 25.0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 72.5 | 3.3 | 10.9 | 14.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
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If I was Camby...
I’d be a little upset that Roeser had a #23 sewn into his jacket to represent Griffin at the lottery. I feel that was very disrespectful to Camby.
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
Speaking of numbers...
I see Harden is going to wear No. 13, which happens to be the same number Gortat wears with the Magic.
Gortat would be a long term solution...
but I also feel we should really clear out some roster space by dealing Watson, Wilkins, and maybe even Collison. I feel Presti is weighing both options carefully.
Personally, I would use Camby for next season as a veteran defender/mentor. That move would clear out the roster a bit and preserve cap space while making the Thunder a legit playoff contender. Then try to draft Greg Monroe or Cole Aldrich next year (maybe both if possible). That is my dream scenario.
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
As of right now
my dream scenario for next years draft is probably more of Monroe and Favors, but i think the instinct is right and there are 6 or 7 lottery big men next year that we will have at least some shot at. problem is with taking the project in Mullens i more invision one PF/C and a PG next year which is why i was so hot for the idea of grabbing the point this year because i believe the value of those PG’s 18-20ish in this draft is higher than mullens and the big men next year will be better than the pgs in that draft.
During the playoffs i was with most of the people here on the idea of bringing in Gortat, but the more i see the hype on him the more it makes me think of Jim McIlvaine and while i think Gortat is a better player i just think that centers in this league are so overpaid. There will be plenty of suitors who will probably give up their MLE, especially the knicks, so that means to get him we are talking a 6-7 million dollar investment over probably 5 years. I dont see his value being that high for that number of years especially when this organization has to start signing all of these young players to major contract increases. After next years draft over the next 4-5 years we are going to have to sign probably 5 top 5 picks and 6 top 10 picks to new deals. That said i dont know how active they will really be in bigtime free agency in terms of players like bosh who was mentioned.
I think Camby would fit a team need for next season and be a valuable trade chip at the deadline and i would do it if Watson goes the other way. The problem for me is even in that move i have to wonder something. I personally and i dont think anyone in here should realistically expect this team to win anything this coming season as far as the playoffs are concerned. With that said, what is the point unless Camby comes cheap and has some potential “significant” value later of bringing him to hopefully help us win a few extra games while potentially costing us positions in a much better draft next season? Not sure that is in the long term interest of the club other than to show players like KD, Jeff and Russ that as an organization they are doing this to try and make them better as a team. In the end there is not much difference in a 27-32 win team vs a 30-36 win team other than lost draft position, but that might be an unpopular sentiment in here.
Favors would be another get addition. I haven’t studied him as closely yet since he is just leaving high-school. Xavier Henry from Oklahoma City and Jerome Jordan from Tulsa University would be nice regional additions.
You’re right Gortat will be highly pursued and will likely absorb $7M of our $12M cap. I also feel that price tag maybe too high for our team.
I’m not really into the idea of signing Bosh. I just tossed that out there to remind people that OKC could contend in the 2010 summer free agency. Yet, I would rather contend for more lottery spots in the draft.
I should probably back down from my previous playoff statement. The Thunder isn’t likely to reach the playoffs next year, but I feel they should be right on the cusp of doing so. I’m hoping for about 37-40 wins next season, but more so I want Durant to be in the all-star game and a little more national recognition. Harden as rookie of the year would be nice as well.
So mleetch352 is you position to wait until the next draft comes so the team can lose more game to gain a higher lottery pick gain more experience and develop as a unit?
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
I wouldnt necessarily be offended by the crossed out section
it is not my goal for them to tank games or anything like that but i do agree that this unit if this is the unit we believe is our unit of the future needs to grow as a unit, improve and learn how to play together and then we figure out as they grow where the complementary pieces need to be added around them. I think the key part of that is learning how to win close games together. this team with more experience plays games like it did last year just in the law of averages and understanding of how to execute down the stretch is probably 5 wins better automatically.
I believe that this team right now has 1 bonafide star, 1 potential star and 2 great complementary players in Durant, Russ, Green and Harden. IF KD makes strides in his rebounding and defense to match the offensive strides last year along with continuing the increased trust he had in others to score after coming back from his injury; Russell continues to improve his shot, work on his decision making and trust his teammates to hit the open shot; Green continues the strides he made b/w year 1 and 2 in terms of post offense, shot selection and rebounding; Harden steps in with solid long range shooting, good D and another ballhandler this team can make strides from the low 20’s to the low to mid 30’s. I dont see them as constructed at a 37-40 win team. I see them as 32-36 win team max next year and the year after where you add another piece or 2, being a legit post scorer and defensive presence a mid 40’s team.
My issue is if we make a move for say a Camby and he rebounds like he did 2 years ago in Denver it is great for our team in terms of win/loss record, but does it help or hurt the development of Green and Durant in their urgency to crash the glass?
Favors is a Josh Smith type player who while playing mainly the 4 spot can rebound and block shots…Jerome Jordan to me is 2nd rounder not all that different from a Javale McGee of the Wizards. I dont know anything about Henry, I am intrigued by Avery Bradley in watching him a number of times this year but dont know that either of them fill a need.
The only top tier point next year is wall right now, that could always change. But w 4’s and 5’s there are plenty:
Ed Davis shot blocker, rebounder, will score this year; know him from the Richmond HS system bigger bodied shot blocker, rebounder, decent post moves
Aldrich
Greg Monroe- skilled left handed Big who’s team doesnt know how to play with him; can block shots, rebound and has post moves but doesnt get or demand the ball enough
Patrick Patterson – slightly undersized but production is excellent with rebounding and post play
Alabi and Larry Sanders – both shot blockers and rebounders who are developing offensive games; i know more about Sanders through my VCU connections and if he stayed out of foul trouble he would be a beast, but he has a lot to prove on the offensive end now that Maynor is not getting him dunks all the time);
the other most intriguing prospects to me that arent 4/5 players or American are Motiejunas who i havent seen much if any on.
The two in College are Devin Ebanks of WV who i think is going to be a special player who if he got bigger could actually play the 4, but i think he is suited as a 3 who can do many things in a Rudy Gay type player. The other who i think plays in a shitty style for his game and i think Matta plays that way cause while he recruits a lot of high end recruits never completes his team with talent is Evan Turner. As much as i like Harden, I think Turner who plays with a toughness like a Caron Butler will be a better all around ball player with his defense, passing and rebounding skills.
And there is my June 09 preview for the June ’10 draft…lol.
I will be watching more college ball next year, that is for sure.
I dont see them as constructed at a 37-40 win team. I see them as 32-36 win team max next year
I’m fine with somewhere between 30-40 wins. As long as people stop calling us the worst team in the league like they did after last year’s horrific start.
does it help or hurt the development of Green and Durant in their urgency to crash the glass?
I agree rebounding is a major concern, that is why I’d hate to part with Collison now. I love the fact that Krstic and Green have mid-range shots, but we need someone to cover the basket at all times.
…i think Matta plays that way cause while he recruits a lot of high end recruits never completes his team with talent…
I just looked up Turner and he does look promising.
Speaking of Matta, do you buy into idea that Matta’s system hurt Mullens ranking in this draft? Out of high school Rivals.com had Mullens ranked #1, Scout.com ranked him #1 by position, and ESPN ranked him #5 overall. What happen? I have read that he doesn’t have a back to the basket game, and that is the system that Matta tried to have Mullens play. Could you offer any insight to that?
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
to say that
is to admit that mullens wont ever be a back to the basket center and more of a faceup 4 man. i do believe that mullens with his athleticism for a man his size is much better on a team that plays more up and down. my problem with them laying the blame on matta is when does mullens take responsibility for his own failure whether it be on the court or in his decision to go there because matta was known to be the coach and they knew his style and yet he committed there as a junior when he obviously could have gone elsewhere.
I'm actually surprised by...
all the neither votes. I would like to know everyone’s perspective. To everyone interested in the trade route, do you have anyone else in mind? Perhaps Dalembert, Troy Murphy, or Andrew Bogut? I’m just tossing names out there, I don’t know anything about their contracts.
Trading for an expiring contract like Camby’s is just like waiting for the next draft. Unless we can land more draft picks via our trade options or work ourselves out of the lottery.
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
none of those deals
Dalembert is owed 23.5 mil over the next 2 years
Murphy 23 over 2 years
Bogut is the worst at least 60 mil over 5 years.
Maybe the neither votes mean now that we drafted Mullens we just should not do anything at the center spot.
The only centers that I would trade for that seem to at least be somewhat available would be Al Jefferson (their gm is obviously a moron), Biedrins (9 mil is more than he is worth, but better than others out there)
I would also inquire about Kendrick Perkins because he can exactly what we need him for. I doubt they would trade him, but maybe they really want to keep powe or big baby and i dont think w their cap situation that is really possible right now unless big baby and powe are going to sign for like 3 mil a year at which point we should look into them.
One other option. Zaza Pachulia could be a cheap short term option to help Kristic. The other is the international i talked about before in
I might sound like an ibaka fanboy
but the guy has the length and athleticism to be in the NBA, although his strength is indeed a concern, i just don’t get why the thunder do not want to bring him in early, would’nt it be better to sit on the bench and learn the system rather than leaving him in spain and facing him against slightly weaker players? its like a fight between giving him playing time and developing him for the future. Also i would rather the thunder ride out this year and get a lotto pick next year to get maybe a backup at any position or a real stud center(provided mullens does not develop real good this year)
how much good
did it do for sene and petro to basically ride the bench in the nba and barely play, sene particularly. let him play overseas, he is not playing in a weak league, get the experience of playing and then bring him in a year. if this team has kristic, green, collison, white and even mullens at the big slots bringing ibaka to play mop up minutes or go down to the nbdl wont help his development at all.
I would consider myself a fan of Serge’s potential. He is lengthy, athletic, and has an amazing leaping ability. If I remember correctly his ball handling and passing skills are subpar. Ibaka is 6-10 and could rotate to play the center, but I think of him more as a 4. Actually Ibaka and Mullens both need a lot of work, especially in the lowpost. From what I understand, both guys have survived so far based on their athletic ability.
I’m not against the idea of waiting out next year. Watson, Wilkins, and Atkins (if not waived) could be traded over the summer (preferable in deals that include more draft picks). Next year could be exciting for the Tulsa 66ers. I can see Vaden, Weaver, White, Mullens, Ibaka, and Hardin in a constant rotation between the Thunder and 66ers rosters. That would leave the eight man rotation of Shaun, Thabo, Jeff, Kevin, James, Russell, Nenad, and Nick in a good position to grow as a unit.
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
rather they stay in europe
ibaka hardin and there was even a story this morning about how they might send vaden to europe to play and develop against better competition than the nbdl. I do think Mullens and Weaver will see significant time in the d-league this year while i think that as currently constructed that white is the backup 4 so he should see some consistent time.
Excellent news in a story about Presti’s cap intentions which seem to lineup with what you and I have been arguing for in this post. This was a semi-response to a rumor that the thunder were lining up to make a run at millsap for in excess of 11 mil a year. I like Millsap but that’s about 3 mil a year too much for him.
“Thunder fans should be forewarned: it’s unlikely general manager Sam Presti will make a major splash for three reasons: 1.) Presti wants ample salary cap space for when Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook are due major pay raises. 2.) The plan is to allow young players to grow together instead of acquiring veterans that could provide immediate help. 3.) Presti essentially purchased two “free agents” when he signed Nenad Krstic last December and traded for Thabo Sefolosha in February. “We’ve been fortunate to create some (salary cap) flexibility,” Presti said. “But at the same time, we’ll continue to be methodical about decisions on how we build our team.”
I realize that not everyone will be signed over this summer. I’m just excited to see what they can bring. Presti does love to stash guys overseas, and Ibaka was projected to be a two year project. Vaden is a bit iffy to me, but he could be our catch and shoot guy off the bench if Wilkins is traded. The one benefit to bringing them over is they can learn our system better. I like Milsap as well, but he is too pricey. I’d rather see White’s game develop first before bringing someone like Milsap.
A slow and methodical rebuilding process maybe hard to sell to a larger city, but OKC is so happy just to have a team we could probably take a few more years without loosing a substantial amount of our fan-base. The important thing is not to get in a LeBron/Cleveland scenario with Durant.
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
After reading most of the comments
i think the team really needs to let go of wilkins, watson, swift and rose these guys juz take up the salary and stifle the development of the younger players. while resigning mason as he’s a fan favourite and provides good minutes at the 2. I believe now that we should let ibaka play 1 more year before coming ove.
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Northwest Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Denver
|
53 | 29 | .646 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
Utah
|
53 | 29 | .646 | 0 | Lost 4 |
|
Oklahoma City
|
50 | 32 | .609 | 3 | Lost 2 |
|
Portland
|
50 | 32 | .609 | 3 | Lost 2 |
|
Minnesota
|
15 | 67 | .182 | 38 | Lost 7 |
(updated 9.2.2010 at 4:09 PM CDT)
Thunder Schedule
Last 5 Games
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Fri 04/30 | L 94 - 95 |
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Los Angeles Lakers
|
Tue 04/27 | L 87 - 111 |
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Sat 04/24 | W 110 - 89 |
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Thu 04/22 | W 101 - 96 |
|
@
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Tue 04/20 | L 92 - 95 |
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