Thabeet "Key" For Thunder At 2009 NBA Draft...In More Ways Than One.
by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 27, 2009 4:00 AM CDT
in Draft Coverage
Email
Print
Ricky Rubio of course is the flashy young point guard from overseas who has been playing professional ball for four years, and has a ridiculously large buyout of $8 million/season that he must pay for the right to play in the NBA before the end of his contract. This has inevitably lead to rumors coming out that he will only come to the NBA if he is drafted by a large market team. Now while he's a terrific prospect and would be a great addition to any team (including the Oklahoma City Thunder), his VALUE to other teams may be so great that the Thunder find themselves unable to pass up trade opportunities that may be floated their way.
In terms of trading the #3 pick, the Thunder should have a multitude of options and deals at their disposal to choose from. First and foremost they will likely make the call to the Los Angeles Clippers and see what they want packaged into a Griffin for Rubio deal. This is the only scenario in which I see the Thunder losing the upper hand in any negotiations for a draft day trade deal. However, if the Clippers insist on packaging either Russell Westbrook or Jeff Green, the Thunder should go ahead and start looking at trade partners below them. Its because of Rubio's value to other teams that the Thunder shouldn't spend too much time trying to work a deal with the Clippers if they are insistent about Green/Westbrook being part of the deal.
Should the Thunder choose to move down, they will have any number of teams to choose from as Rubio's rights are highly coveted, and with the top 3 players off the board, the 4th overall pick isn't supremely better than any other pick in the top 10. Sure each pick is progressively worse, but the level of talent is pretty consistent. The Thunder will have to decide an alternative player in the draft that they want if they trade away the third pick, and figure out which pick he's most likely to, no longer, be available, and then look at all the teams before that pick as trade partners. Once that's done, start looking over those teams rosters and see if there is a capable big man that a team might be willing to part ways with to get their hands on Rubio. This way the Thunder can add a veteran big man as well as a young guard. If you read my post a while back "Worst Case Scenario" I suggested the Thunder draft Ty Lawson. While trading away talent like Rubio may not be ideal, if you can get a productive piece in a trade and add a guard like Lawson to compliment Westbrook, you have the beginnings of a team that could be competing for a playoff spot as early as next year. This is also not to say the Thunder couldn't decide to trade down only a spot or two and do the same thing and get their hands on an even more highly touted guard than Lawson, perhaps James Harden?
What I'm trying to say here is, Hasheem Thabeet is the key. If he's available at #3, you might as well take him because trading down isn't likely to net you nearly as much value as if we had a pick that guaranteed us either Rubio or Griffin (which would be much more sought after than if those guys are gone). On top of that he's probably the best overall fit for the team anyway. If he's not available at #3, that means the value of our pick has skyrocketed as teams begin to salivate over the oppertunity to trade up and nab Rubio. So much so the Thunder could find themselves with yet another puzzle piece to go with their draft choice, or possibly a puzzle piece and 2 draft picks. Who knows, Presti gets value out of nothing, imagine if he had Rubio as a barganing tool.
Like this article? You might like our EOS Series too! (Click a Picture below to read our Final Evaluations)
32 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It would be nice to hear some reasoned refutation of my earlier arguments against Thabeet.
That extends beyond “good points but I choose to conveniently ignore everything you just said.” This isn’t just some irrational aversion to drafting centers based on the sonic’s failures. This is about looking at the historical record of teams that draft unskilled 7’+ athletes because they ooze upside and fill a need. What, you think all those other teams didn’t also have a gaping hole in the middle?
Let me ask a different question: what probability do you give thabeet of being a better player than gortat or Andersen? What are the chances he doesn’t and becomes no more than a decent bench center or worse? Now, given those liklihoods, how can you justify that taking thabeet is an automatic yes when there is a strong case to be made for taking a safer 2guard and filling our hole in the middle through free agency or trade?
I'm still not convinced...
of Hasheem as the #3 pick. Free agency or trade could be the route to go, but I’ll allow Sam Presti make that determination. If we draft Thabeet on draft night, I’ll trust that Presti did all his homework and made a solid choice. If we don’t draft Hasheem, I’ll know Presti couldn’t live with the risk and choose a more stable pick.
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
I'll give you a percentage.
Thabeet has a 70% chance of being better than Gortat. Maybe even as low as 60%.
The thing with Thabeet though is though, his ceiling is much higher. He hasn’t been playing basketball his whole life, he doesn’t have the injury concern of a Tyson Chandler, the work ethic concern of an Eddy Curry, or the desire to play concern of a Kwame Brown.
He has three concerns.
1) Will he be able to add 20 pounds of muscle to his frame over the next 5 years?
2) Will he be able to guard bigger players in the NBA in a one-on-one scenario. I personally have no doubts that he could be a Marcus Camby type who guards duds like Greg Ostertag, but plays amazing help side defense and swats shots from driving guards. The concern with his defense is will he be able to guard the average big man, when perhaps the lower end of skilled big men offensively, in terms of starting talent, is somewhere close to Nick Collison or Joakim Noah.
3) Will his offense ever develop. Being tall certainly does not negate one from having an array of offensive moves. Just ask Yao Ming and his soft touch, hook shot, and fadeaway combos. If Thabeet pans out defensively into a Tim Duncan/KG type player defensively, anything on offense is just gravy. At the worst, he will need to provide some adequate high post picks, and some offensive rebounding and tip in ability.
Here’s why Thabeet > Gortat. If Gortat becomes a 16-10-2 player, it will be in a normal, slightly better than Collison role (my assumption). If Thabeet pans out, he will be the anchor for the Thunder defense that will allow Durant, Green, and Westbrook to play crazy good wing defense, all why providing great rebounding and blocked shot help as well. The Thunder will be significantly above average at 3 or 4 positions.
If they don’t draft Thabeet, and instead draft a Harden type, then the team will have to follow a Denver Nuggets / Atlanta Hawks type mold, which is fine. I’d prefer a Orlando Magic / San Antonio type team myself though.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
by LantermanC on May 27, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agree with a lot of what you said.
But am not so sure about you conclusions. 16/10/2 seems like a pretty reasonable projection for gortat as a full time starter. To me, though, that seems to be close to thabeet’s upside if he can learn any semblance of an offensive game (something I wouldn’t bet on personally) and I wouldn’t give him anywhere close to a 60% chance of beating those numbers. Add in the defensive concerns (point number 2 looms as the biggest concern for me and one I have zero confidence he will overcome) and I just don’t see thabeet as a quality pick.
60% chance of being better than Gortat,
where Gortat’s upside is 16/10/2. I think Gortat is a good piece to a puzzle, and is a great player. I just don’t see him being a possible defensive mainstay. There’s a difference between playing capable defense against your own player like I think Gortat can and will do, and being a possible lock down defensive force down low that either discourages the smaller players from driving down low, makes the job easier for perimeter defenders, knowing that two long and quick arms are there to back them up, and possibly neutralizes whatever big man there is.
Again, it really depends on whether or not you think Thabeet is capable of Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan, (90’s Hakeem or Robinson) defense. He could even be more of a Camby (overrated defensively in my mind because while his numbers are great, he doesn’t lock down his guy) or Dalembert or Nene/KMart.
I agree, I have SERIOUS doubts as to whether or not Thabeet can be that player, or if he’s just a really tall guy who can take advantage of playing against inferior college ball talent. Even so, a lock down center defender is like a pro-bowl quarterback. The chances of getting one are rare, and the risk is always much higher, but if you get that chance, you take it because it makes things a lot easier on everyone else.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
"If he’s just a really tall guy who can take advantage of playing against inferior college ball talent."
I’m pretty sold that this is the case.
Think of the players you just listed: Howard, Duncan, Hakeem, Robinson, and Martin all were highly-coveted first overall picks (well, not Martin, but he was the consensus #1 in a horrible draft year). Shaq and Yao too. Marcus Camby was second behind AI in a strong draft. What all these current lockdown defenders have in common is that they showed what they were capable before they were drafted. They were all absolute studs in college that no way no how would have allowed themselves to be boxed out by 6’4" guards. Dalembert was a project pick in the late first. Nene was picked 7th, but even he was known as a physical banger while playing for Brasil. KG was picked 4th overall, but we can give him a pass since he was the first player drafted straight out of high school in over 20 years.
My point is that extremely few shutdown centers develop that necessary passion and mentality over time. They have it before they’re drafted and become extremely highly coveted #1 picks. In my opinion, the high-upside high-downside picks that haven’t clearly demonstrated that they are ready to bang are not worthy of #3 picks.
Great point.
Those guys were consensus 1 or 2 picks, and Thabeet is not. Shoot, even Olowakandi and Bogut were number 1 picks, which goes to show just how overhyped and blind teams can be when potential and size mix.
I guess it kind of boils down to this. Does a big man down low complete the team or does a wing player give them Thunder enough to compete? Obviously a big man does more for the team, and a big man is harder to find, but at what risk does the decision to draft Thabeet become not worth it? If he has half the success rate of a Harden?
And of course I’ve been ignoring the fact that a Mister P brought up that Rubio has a lot more value than Thabeet because a lot more teams feel confident in his ability to make the transition to the NBA. His extra value represents trade value for a player like a Horford-caliber player. A Horford and a Gortat would be enough I think to be great defensively down low. Green could come off the bench in a Manu/Odom-type role.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
I want to be with you on this. Trying to be optimistic on Thabeet. High ceiling centers taken by this team, from Ervin Johnson, to Calvin Booth, Sene and Robert Swift, have all let me down. Maybe this is the one that will shine.
by blackvanilla on May 27, 2009 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe it just me but It looks as if you chose to...
Conveniently ignore this entire post and base your comments on the title as if I’m saying we should no matter what do anything to get Thabeet, which is not the case. This particular article deals with value, and especially the skyrocketing value of the #3 overall pick if the Grizzlies draft Thabeet.
If you read the post you’ll fully understand the reason why we should take him at 3 if Rubio and Griffin are gone already and yes it’s to fill a need and based on size, defensive ability and ridiculous upside. The NBA draft in general is based primarily on upside. Who is to say any of these other guards won’t be busts as well. Every guy in the draft has positives and negatives.
-This comment brought to you by Mr Pappagiorgio aka Mister P
Welcome to Loud City | WTLC on Twitter | Mister P on Twitter | WTLC on Facebook | SBNation
by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 27, 2009 6:57 AM CDT reply actions
I'm also very high on Gortat
Which should be clear from an earlier post but getting him is no sure thing especially since the Magic have the final say on mathing any offer which could decrease the value in his signing since the contract will have to be large enough that the Magic will be forced to pass on keeping him. Plus his play during the playoffs is only increasing his desirability and could lead toward more teams competing over signing him.
-This comment brought to you by Mr Pappagiorgio aka Mister P
Welcome to Loud City | WTLC on Twitter | Mister P on Twitter | WTLC on Facebook | SBNation
by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 27, 2009 7:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Good point. Is a high priced Gortat worth more then a rookie scale Thabeet?
by blackvanilla on May 27, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
It is in my mind because you're paying more than the rookie salary for Thabeet.
The correct comparison is:
~$10m/yr for Gortat
vs
- pick for Thabeet
I understand. With Gortat, spending 10 mil, but retaining the three.
by blackvanilla on May 27, 2009 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions
My comment was based off lines like,
"His availability will determine whether the Thunder will make a selection with the 3rd pick, proceed with a “draft and trade” (trade up), or trade down."
If Rubio and Griffin both come off the board at #1 and #2, the Thunder should and will select Hasheem Thabeet.
Your whole post is premised on the fact that Thabeet at 3 is automatic when I and many others don’t see that to be the case. It just leaves me to scratch my head and wonder what makes you so positive when the criticisms of Thabeet are, in my opinion, valid and worthy of addressing by the Thabeet boosters.
You still haven't read the entire post.
Either that or you’re simply not comprehending.
-This comment brought to you by Mr Pappagiorgio aka Mister P
Welcome to Loud City | WTLC on Twitter | Mister P on Twitter | WTLC on Facebook | SBNation
by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 27, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions
What am I not comprehending?
The meat of the post discusses trade options with Rubio at 3. Which is fine. But you preface that by saying it’s a guarantee, in your eyes, that the Thunder will take Thabeet. That is the contention I am arguing.
I don't say its a guarantee...
I said he was the slam dunk choice, and also stated that it was my opinion.
The point I’m making is that the if Thabeet goes at #2 our pick becomes substantially more valuable and enables us to benefit bigtime with a trade and still fill a need a few slots down. The biggest reason I think Thabeet should be picked at #3 if the other two guys are gone is quite simply because I don’t expect there to be much value in any package other teams will offer the Thunder to trade up. The difference in what can be gotten out of teams for Rubio vs Thabeet is night and day in my opinion. All I’m saying is if we get the oppertunity to dangle Rubio out there, Presti will should be able to pull off deal that will improve the Thunder immensely more than if they were to trade down instead of picking Thabeet in the case that Rubio and Griffin have already gone one two.
Its not about saying we should pick Thabeet. Its about the decreased value of our tradeable pick should the top two guys be gone, and in such case, I like Thabeet at #3.
You like someone else? Okay, go make a fanpost and tell my why I’m an idiot for wanting Thabeet at number 3 if the top two are gone.
-This comment brought to you by Mr Pappagiorgio aka Mister P
Welcome to Loud City | WTLC on Twitter | Mister P on Twitter | WTLC on Facebook | SBNation
by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 27, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I get that the post is about Rubio's value at 3 vs. Thabeet's.
It’s the phrasing of the whole thing that baffled me. By saying that the Thunder “should and will select Thabeet” you’re making the claim that it is, in your mind a foregone conclusion that Thabeet is the pick if Rubio is gone. Many disagree that Thabeet is the best pick at 3. So I’m asking for you to back up your opinion that Thabeet is a “slam dunk” in the face of arguments to the contrary.
I never said you were an idiot, nor did I ever imply as much. I’m trying to have an argument about basketball.
lol
Its just my opinion, I did all the backing up I feel is necessary in the post.
-This comment brought to you by Mr Pappagiorgio aka Mister P
Welcome to Loud City | WTLC on Twitter | Mister P on Twitter | WTLC on Facebook | SBNation
by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 27, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, ironically, I'm starting to come around on the idea of drafting Rubio if he's there.
Sure, go ahead and call around, see if GS or the Wiz are willing to offer the world for him. But don’t give him away for your future third man off the bench. Star talent is such a precious commodity in this game and winning a title requires so much talent. So you create an interesting positional snafu with Westbrook and Rubio. How fun to watch Scotty Brooks sort it out. Can you imagine Rubio running a Suns-style offense with Durant, Green, and Westbrook to run with?
I agree, it would be a lot of fun.
But what did Steve Nash or Pete Maravich in his prime ever win? I suppose you could throw out the 80’s Lakers as an example, but that team had Kareem.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
Pete played with terrible teams
Nash got jobbed by fickle fate time and time again. You should know how much of a factor luck plays in winning a championship.
I do, but look who has won in the past?
Spurs, defense, efficienct, not flashy. 3 times.
Lakers, big man down the middle, more of a balanced team though.
Pistons, defense, efficient, two big men, but 2 wings and a pg, so two way players.
Celtics, defense, big man down the middle.
Miami Heat (championship does not count).
Before that it was Bulls, Rockets, Bulls, Pistons. All great at defense, but to be fair the Bulls and Rockets were balanced.
I think Nash’s teams have been treated unfairly in the playoffs, but that’s what happens in the playoffs. You can’t ignore it. Flashy offense-first PGs have never been the key to winning a championship.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
Miami doesn't count? Funny...
Concerning Rubio, I still think he is too turnover prone. Sure his passes look wonderful on Youtube, but in an actually game he gets as many turnovers as assists. Why would we want that?
Read this if you haven’t heard about his most recent game.
Also Known as "4D" one step beyond 3D
Did you watch that finals?
If Wade didn’t make an amazing shot, he was getting to the line for no reason. I couldn’t watch the series. The officiating was so disgusting.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
I just like the idea
of an NBA championship team winning with a spirited wing attack and fantastic transition and perimeter defense. But that’s neither here nor there. You’re right, of course, that the standard formula requires lockdown halfcourt defense. Wouldn’t it be fun to upset that? I honestly believe the Suns were capable of doing that if not for horribly timed injuries and poor officiating.
Anyway, this is neither here nor there. We have no idea what kind of system Brooks would run with Rubio at the one. My point is that Rubio has the potential to be a top-5 PG in the league, and with such a premium in this league for top-end talent, it’d take a major trade haul for me to let that opportunity slide.
I would love to win a championship with D. Might have to rethink Green and Durant though. I forsee more of a Bulls or Rockets situation being a possibility.
by blackvanilla on May 27, 2009 11:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Welcome to Loud City
Related FanShots on Welcome to Loud City
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Follow WTLC on Twitter
Next Game
Northwest Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City
|
47 | 19 | .712 | 0 | Won 4 |
|
Denver
|
38 | 28 | .575 | 9 | Lost 1 |
|
Utah
|
36 | 30 | .545 | 11 | Lost 4 |
|
Portland
|
28 | 38 | .424 | 19 | Lost 7 |
|
Minnesota
|
26 | 40 | .393 | 21 | Lost 2 |
(updated 5.17.2012 at 9:26 PM CDT)
Thunder Schedule
Next 5 Games
|
@
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Fri 05/18 | 9:30 PM CDT |
|
@
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Sat 05/19 | 9:30 PM CDT |
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Mon 05/21 | TBA |
|
@
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Wed 05/23 | TBA |
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Sun 05/27 | TBA |
Last 5 Games
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Wed 05/16 | W 77 - 75 |
|
Los Angeles Lakers
|
Mon 05/14 | W 119 - 90 |
|
Dallas
|
Sat 05/12 | TBA |
|
@
Dallas
|
Thu 05/10 | TBA |
|
Dallas
|
Mon 05/07 | TBA |
Loud City - Bring The Thunder (Rafter Banner)
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Lance Stephenson made a choking gesture at LeBron James (VIDEO)
- Dwyane Wade clashes with his coach, the Pacers dominate the paint and take the series lead (VIDEO)
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Daniel Gibson considers theology
- Tim Duncan hates Kevin Garnett, apparently
- Mike Brown wants Jimmy Goldstein to ask a press conference question (VIDEO)
