Hoping For Ricky Rubio
From the Fanposts: Dishingoutdimes dishes out his hopes for Ricky Rubio Landing in Oklahoma City Next Season. -Mr P
Mark my words, he will be a great NBA player.
I'm not alone in my opinion either. Here's what one NBA GM had to say about Rubio:
"He's special," one NBA GM told ESPN.com. "There aren't many kids you'll find at his age with such a terrific feel for the game. He just knows how to play. When he gets out there with players 10 years older than him, he just looks like he belongs. He'll have some adjusting to do in the NBA, but the truth is, he's as NBA-ready as most of the college kids that are coming out. He's playing on a very big world stage."
I have to admit, I kind of shoved Rubio aside when I was putting together my draft wish list, but the deeper you dig, the more you have to love his potential to be a star. I always love a flashy point guard because I think they create a lot of opportunities for a team, and really open up the floor for the rest of the guys. But even more than that, I think every team just needs a guy to be able to drive to the basket and break down a defense. Ginobli and Parker do this for the Spurs, so it's no wonder that they're always competitive.
Then I saw this video on YouTube. And this one. And you can just tell that he has a knack for getting past defenders and towards the basket. He also seems like a ballhawk who anticipates passing lanes and can get game breaking steals.
A lot of people will dog him for being sleight in frame (180 pounds), but the two easiest things to do once he gets to an NBA team will be to bulk up and to develop a jump shot. Those are the things that NBA coaches can get a young player the fastest, which is why you see a lot of teams drafting athletic freaks.
More after the jump...
People also get on Rubio about his lack of a great shot. Here are some nuggets from DraftExpress.com about that:
...when you consider that he takes under 2.5 jump shots per game, has made only 5 of his 25 logged pull up jumpers, and is still gaining confidence in his improved catch and shoot ability (1.1 Pos/G, 41%, 9/22)...In contrast, his limited isolation possessions are indicative of some issues, as he’s not going to produce a ton in pure one-on-one situations.
It's also widely known that he doesn't have great range on his jump shots, but as you could see in the YouTube videos, he can nail the three.
Of course, like I said, the jump shot is one of the easiest thing for NBA coaches to develop in a young player. And all of this is moot when you consider the following information, also from DraftExpress.com:
Always better known for his creativity and playmaking ability, it doesn’t come as a shock that Rubio looks good in transition. He is shooting 69% on his transition opportunities...Fortunately, Rubio, like most European point guard’s we’ve evaluated, is effective on the pick and roll. With 27% of his touches coming from the two-man game, Rubio could have a mutually beneficial relationship with the post players he is teamed with in the NBA...Rubio simply doesn’t use that many possessions as a scorer (9 Pos/G)
Basically, Rubio is a playmaker and a creator, rather than a scorer. He looks to set up his teammates far more than he looks to set up himself, which is why he could potentially be a great point guard in the league.
His creativity is simply exceptional. He will find a way to squeeze balls through narrow alleys and seems to know 5 steps ahead what he will do when he is driving down the lane. Add to that the fact he has been playing professionally since he was 16 and you have a raw, athletic phenom who has an exceptional upside. Not only that, but he is 6'4", so he is tall for the point guard position. Adding bulk will give him great size at PG.
Finally, he seems to be a developing leader and has that certain pizzazz and panache that makes for a great player. With the ball in his hands, any play could turn into a spectacular one.
And with that, I'll leave you with Rubio's stat line from this past season with DKV Joventut:
10.0 ppg, 39.1 FG%, 42.3 3P%, 80.4 FT%, 6.1 apg, 2.2 steal pg, 2.6 rpg
Adjusted for a per 40 minute rate:
17.4 ppg, 10.6 apg, 3.8 steal pg, 4.5 rpg
His player efficiency rating is a phenomenal 20.5 (average designed to be 15), which is comparable to Rajon Rondo's rating (19.85) in the NBA. His assist to turnover ratio is slightly better than 2. The list could go on and on.
I'm starting to get concerned that Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio are the two sure bets and that the Thunder may want to use their plethora of assets (cap space, 2 first round draft picks, talented young players like Jeff Green) to trade up to 1 or 2 in the draft order. Hasheem Thabeet is not a great offensive player, and I think he may have trouble getting shots or getting involved in the offense at all. He could become just another really tall role player, exactly what I'm sure Thunder fans don't want to hear. And I think Harden will be a decent shooting guard, but I don't think he has the potential to be great. Anyone else is too risky or will be available lower.
I'm starting to think the Thunder should trade down if they can't get Rubio, or trade up to get him. I think it would be well worth their while, and probably less expensive than trading up to get Griffin.
Stats were from Rubio's DraftExpress page.
This post does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of Welcome to Loud City or SB Nation. However, it was made by one of the members of the Welcome to Loud City community, so there is a large chance the above post is extremely ballin'!
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 5:41 AM CDT reply actions
Rubio all the way
I have the exact feelings on Thabeet that you do … he will probably end up being a really tall role player. But if we get Rubio, then we just expect Westbrook to excel at the SG position?? I hope he can, otherwise we blow one pick. Also, are we sure this is what Presti wants?? He spent last season bulking up this position with Atkins and Livingston (but I guess they both could be backups to Rubio). I just don’t know how I feel about Russell at the 2.
Westbrook
is a natural Shooting Guard. In the long run, he’ll be better at the 2 than at the point.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Unfortunately
Memphis is set on Thabeet. I was just getting over not getting Blake Griffin too. That sucks. I really want KD on a winning squad.
I was going to make my argument against Rubio,
but Hollinger’s done it for me:
“It’s not as simple as moving Westbrook to the 2, either. He has the size to play there, but he’s not a good shooter. Since Rubio is a lousy shooter too, it would invite opponents to double- and triple-team Kevin Durant while sagging way off the Thunder’s guards.”
He’s just a kid and he could develop a shot. He could learn to play defense. But counting on either is rolling the dice. I’d much rather get a dead-eye shooter at 2 guard and let Westbrook continue to develop as a Rondo-like point. If Rubio is available at the three, I would love to trade down with the Kings to get Spencer Hawes and James Harden at 4.
Love the article...
and Hollinger’s recommended trades as well.
“Would Oklahoma City trade down a spot with Sacramento? The Kings are dying to get Rubio, while at No. 4 the Thunder could snag a much-needed wing sniper like James Harden and earn a few other goodies in the process. As enticement, Sacramento could offer its No. 23 pick and/or Spencer Hawes, or agree to swap Jason Thompson for Thabo Sefolosha.”
“For instance, the Wizards could trade down with Memphis (No. 27), Oklahoma City (No. 25) or Sacramento (No. 23), throw in $3 million (the maximum allowed) and dump Etan Thomas’ $7.3 million on their lap, simultaneously getting Washington back to the tax line while still adding another young player. Alternatively, the Wizards could ask for a role-playing wing with a modest contract, or just structure it as a straight salary dump for a future conditional pick.”
I like the way he thinks, but all this nonsense would be resolved if the Clippers take Rubio, Gizz take Griffin, and the Thunder take Thabeet.
Plus...
Hawes and Durant are good friends from what I heard. Our great team chemistry would only get greater.
Except for the part where
Hawes is yet another turnover prone, clumsy defender to add to our lackluster team defense. He could be really good if he finally figures out the nuances of body control (given his young age) but at the moment it’s sort of … bleh. If it was the swap of Thabo for Jason Thompson I’d jump all over that and then pick up Harden or Jennings instead.
nope!
We arent giving up spencer. So u guys would either get another draft pick or a guy like donte who very well could end up being something special. Plus ricky said he wants to play for either sacramento or LA
by cwebbisboss1 on May 21, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, I read that.
"Rubio doesn’t want to go to Memphis, and he especially does not want to pay money out of his own pocket with that huge buyout for the honor of doing so. Fegan [Rubio’s agent] wants him in L.A., and if he can’t have him there, he wants him in Sacramento. Definitely not Oklahoma City. "
If that is the case, forget him.
It doesn't matter much
What Ricky wants or doesn’t want. If they don’t like the other options Presti will be smart enough to draft the best player available at the time and let the player decide what they want to do.
No point in getting another draft pick unless it adds a high probability of substantially improving the team (potentially); same goes with “guys like donte” — it’d make more sense to sit back and expend the huge amounts of cash to grab useful pieces rather than patchwork things with another “guy who could be special” — I think at the NBA level, any player “could be special if given a few years” (but I’d bet against it). If Rubio is available at 3, you can count on Sacramento having to put together a better package than just throwing some random low pick to grab him — otherwise I’m sure some other teams will be more than willing to leapfrog and move up. Using that argument the Thunder could always package future picks and the later 1st rounder with random pieces and move up again in this draft. Lower picks in the NBA draft just aren’t nearly as valuable in comparison to something like the NFL draft.
Both Rubio and Westbrook can develop their jumpshot. At times RW0 couldn’t miss this season, and other times, he couldn’t get it in. He’s capable, if he works on it. Rubio is only 18, still plenty of time to develop that jumpshot.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Rubio could very well develop a J.
But will he? What’s the likelihood of that happening? Will he be a total pushover on defense against larger, stronger guards, or will he fill out and be able to hold his own? How long will all this take, if it does happen? Two years? Five? Look I’m not down on Rubio at all, and I’d be pretty pumped if OKC lands him; it’s pretty hard not to be excited when you’re landing that kind of talent. I’m just of the mind that the Thunder have two huge needs: scoring in the backcourt and frontline help. I’d rather flip the pick to Sacramento and address both those needs with two nice complimentary players than bring in an ace talent who doesn’t fit with the team and who could very well stifle the Westbrook’s development.
Westbrook can work on his jumper all he wants (and he should!), but he becomes really special with the ball in his hands because he’s so good at creating havoc in penetration. His body and his game are made for getting into the lane and creating opportunities.
Rubio is not a total pushover on defense
If you watched him in the Olympics (different though the game may be), he did a pretty good job guarding Chris Paul. And his stat line from the first USA/Spain game was far from terrible: 8 points, 3 boards, 3 assists and 3 steals in 18 minutes. And in the gold medal game: 6 points, 6 boards, 3 assists and 3 steals in 29 minutes. This while being guarded by Kobe, CP3, and LeBron. And that medal game was also the game where he hurt his wrist.
In international play (according to DraftExpress and Slam) he completely schooled Jennings in the Joventut vs. Roma game. He isn’t the fastest or the strongest (by far) guard, but there’s something to be said about anticipation, knowledge of the game, and pure skill.
Rubio can work on his shot, but the bigger issue is that Westbrook needs to figure that out first. It doesn’t matter if you add in another scorer at the 2 when Westbrook can’t deliver the ball into the hands of said scorers. You’d need a better distributing 2 to offset the bastardized-combo-guard nature of Westbrook’s play … or have RW0 improve his scoring ability … or have something else emerge as an option.
I see that.
And I think working Rubio into the team would be a lot of fun to watch. There’s a lot more to defense than jumping passing lanes though. On the ball defense is a huge factor, especially for a point guard, and length, quickness, and athleticism are a big part of that. Effort and knowledge of the game are too, and not having seen Rubio play outside of those few Olympics games, it’s hard to see where his head is at in that regard (I know what the scouting reports say but the comparing the Euroleague to the NBA is comparing apples to humungo freakish fast apples).
As for Westbrook developing the court vision necessary to play the point… I guess it kind of comes down to whether you think he can or he can’t. I think he can. His rookie campaign showed so much potential that, I believe, as the game slows down for him he will learn to make smarter decisions. I just worry that if he’s relegated to be a wing and the pressure’s off of him to learn to play the PG position, he will never fulfill his potential as a distributor.
It boils down to how you see Westbrook. Do you want to see him concentrate on becoming a full-time scorer or do you want to see him continue to learn the intricacies of the point?
It boils down to how you see Westbrook. Do you want to see him concentrate on becoming a full-time scorer or do you want to see him continue to learn the intricacies of the point?
If he’s going to be a scorer, he must do it much more efficiently. If he’s going to be a point guard, he can’t turn it over as much as he has. Which is more likely? Through NBA history, it’s easier to develop more efficient scoring than become a better passer.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
There is a short list of players that have developed from 2-guards into point guards. I’d put my money on the scorer becoming a 2 and not a 1.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
I didn't see Westbrook as a 2 last year.
To me, he looked like a rookie PG whose scoring ability was better developed than his passing ability, and whose greatest offensive asset is his ability to get into the lane at will. The number of poor rookie 1s who become go on to become much better as they gain experience is long.
I wouldn’t say his scoring ability was developed, at all. He had a 49%TS mark… that’s incredibly bad. His greatest asset was driving… agreed. He just has to become more efficient by learning how to shoot.
I know the list of poor rookie ones… Payton, Harris, Billups. I just really don’t see Westbrook as a point guard at all. His turnover rate was ridiculous and he just didn’t seem like a point to me. I could be proven wrong, though… it’s so hard to predict young guards.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
Not really arguing with you.
It’s damn hard to predict 1 guards, which is why I tend to trust my eyes over anything else when projecting rookies.
Thought this was interesting though:
[TS% / TRB% / AST% / TO%]
Player A: .531 / 8.2 / 26.6 / 19.1
Player B: .500 / 5.1 / 28.6 / 14.4
Player C: .472 / 9.5 / 26.3 / 20.5
Player D: .490 / 8.6 / 27.5 / 17.3
Player E: .516 / 5.0 / 22.6 / 16.7
Player A: Penny Hardaway
Player B: Deron Williams
Player C: Rajon Rondo
Player D: Russell Westbrook
Player E: Chauncey Billups
Just saying, it’s way too early for me to give up on him at the point.
It’s worth noting that Westbrook had a very high usage rate. His AST% is less impressive when realizing that all of the other guards had a 5% less USG%.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
Exactly
A good study in contrast would be to look at someone like Brandon Roy. Obviously not a PG, but definitely a far superior distributor and better handler of the ball than Westbrook. In short, if you plan on sticking with Westbrook at 1, you need to find someone like Roy at 2. Otherwise Westbrook needs to really start working on fixing his substantial deficits.
Roy is the only player in NBA history, since turnovers were recorded, to average 20 points, 5 rebounds, and less than 2 turnovers. He is, statistically, the best decision-maker in the NBA. This is supported by the SBN Hornet blogger and Chris Paul watcher, Rohan at At the Hive.
Courtney Lee is a poor man’s Roy. Probably not available though.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions
5 rebounds? or 5 assists?
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
You saw a slashing 2 with an inability to control the ball,
I saw a promising point guard making rookie mistakes. I don’t know who’s right and I don’t think it’s cut in stone either way. In the end, this is Presti’s and Brooks’ decision.
It boils down to how you see Westbrook. Do you want to see him concentrate on becoming a full-time scorer or do you want to see him continue to learn the intricacies of the point?
I think Presti sees the later, that is why we drafted him in the 1st place.
We don't actually know what Presti thinks though
It could very well be that the pick was the best option since we lacked good options at BOTH guard positions. Developing Westbrook into a 1 would make sense in that context. Regardless, a Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson would be pretty nice about now.
I have a few statistical issues with this post.
First of all, when you translate ACB PER to the NBA, it’s not a straight-across comparison. There are different numbers floating around, but a 20.4 PER translates to pretty average in the NBA.
I also noticed in your stats that you didn’t mention his incredibly high turnover rate. If I recall correctly, it’s about 33%. That’s ridiculously bad. His A:T ratio is decent, not great, and the turnovers will really hurt in the NBA, especially if combined with Westbrook.
Not to say he won’t be great, just that his numbers aren’t as good as you make it seem.
In the end, the Thunder have a lot of talent that doesn’t have much direction as of yet. They have two really good players in Durant and Green, but they play a really similar position. I’m not sold on Green as a full-time PF. Look what Aldridge did to him the last few times they played. Westbrook is nice, but he must be complemented by the right kind of player… a guy who is fundamentally sound, can shoot the three, and knows how to fit into a team concept… James Harden.
Rubio is nice, but I dunno if he meshes with your roster. Durant HAS to have shooters around him to make him successful. Putting Rubio and Westbrook in the backcourt means your power forward and center better have some big time range.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
I also noticed in your stats that you didn’t mention his incredibly high turnover rate.
Rubio was ranked 4th worst in turnovers per 40 minutes played, but he was ranked 1st in assists.
Lots of good arguments posted here in the comments section
So I’ll attempt to defend my position. Let me say that I think Rubio, Thabeet or Harden would all be good picks as they are all kind of in that “second tier” beyond the obvious #1 pick of Griffin.
@Cablinasian: You’re right, Rubio is turnover prone. I think that might be partially because sometimes his coaches don’t reign him in. He tries to be a little too creative or fit the ball into places where it can’t go. I don’t have the exact stat either. I understand that a PER in Spain doesn’t quite translate to the NBA, but consider that Westbrook has an average PER by NBA standards (15.20).
I guess I should have worked this into my post, but I don’t see Westbrook as a point guard, and that’s why I’m hoping for Rubio. Call me crazy, but I don’t think he’ll ever be an elite distributor at the point.
Also, I think the potential downside of Thabeet is much worse than Rubio. Harden is a relatively polished player, but I don’t know if he has the athleticism to ever be anything than another guy you could plug in that can be an above average shooter. I don’t think he moves much without the ball, and I’m not that high on his defense. Plus, take this nugget from DraftExpress:
Harden’s biggest shortcoming ended up being in the perimeter shooting department. He was terrific on the very few catch and shoot opportunities he received with his feet set (2.4 Pos/G), but really struggled when being contested (.85 PPP) or shooting off the dribble (.73 PPP). In fact, the 27% he shot from the field off the dribble is the lowest of any of the nineteen players in our sample.
I think he’ll be relegated to a role where he’ll catch the ball and shoot it, but he won’t be able to blow by the pros, or create off the dribble, if he couldn’t do it in college.
Here’s what I think about each player:
Thabeet: Defensive specialist who can cause a lot of shot alters that don’t show up in the box score, beyond just blocks. He’ll grab a fair number of rebounds. However, I also think it’s fair to call him soft (anyone who watched him against DeJuan Blair knows this). He has a limited offensive game. The only reason he’s this high on draft boards is because he’s 7’3". Krstic is much more rounded (even though I’m not that high on him either). I think he would be another in a long line of tall busts for this franchise.
Rubio: Dynamic personality and player who can create. He needs to work on his shot, but he’s about the same size as Westbrook was coming into the league (Westbrook 6’3" 187 and Rubio 6’4" 180). Sometimes he tries to be too flashy, causing turnovers, and he needs to improve his range, but he’s quick, he thinks fast, he’s creative and he would be an excellent choice to run the break. As with most international hyped players, you have to be worried he won’t stack up to the NBA competition. I think he’s got the second lowest cellar of the bunch (Thabeet is the lowest), but he’s got the highest ceiling.
Harden: This guy doesn’t really blow by anyone or create with the dribble. He’s been a catch and shoot type of player, scoring on isolations, or scoring in transition. He’s relatively polished, but he, like Rubio, is turnover prone. Unlike Rubio, his turnovers are from more of a lack of ball handling skills. He’s not one of the better athletes at SG (Wayne Ellington anyone?). I think he will always have a role in the NBA as a guy who could potentially come in and hit a few shots, but I think he has the lowest upside of the three. I can’t really see him being much else but a role player or a depth guy. I hope I’m wrong if the Thunder draft him and he turns into some sort of sharpshooter, but I just don’t see it.
Since I don’t think the Thunder want a role player at 3, it’s a choice between Thabeet or Rubio, or I think they should trade down (which, I didn’t address, but is a viable option). Thabeet has the bigger bust potential, and Rubio has the bigger upside, so if you’re staying put at 3, I think it makes sense to take Rubio.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 7:40 PM CDT reply actions
I guess I should have worked this into my post, but I don’t see Westbrook as a point guard, and that’s why I’m hoping for Rubio. Call me crazy, but I don’t think he’ll ever be an elite distributor at the point.
Absolutely agreed on this point. Let Westbrook be what he naturally is: a freak of nature who should drive the lane and not be hindered by the responsibility of manning the point. Play to his strengths.
Thabeet: Defensive specialist who can cause a lot of shot alters that don’t show up in the box score, beyond just blocks. He’ll grab a fair number of rebounds. However, I also think it’s fair to call him soft (anyone who watched him against DeJuan Blair knows this). He has a limited offensive game. The only reason he’s this high on draft boards is because he’s 7’3". Krstic is much more rounded (even though I’m not that high on him either). I think he would be another in a long line of tall busts for this franchise.
I don’t like Thabeet. When a team drafts this early in the draft, I shy away from players who have gaping holes in their game that most agree they are unlikely to fill. OKC needs a post player if they are going with Green at PF. Thabeet is not that.
Rubio: Dynamic personality and player who can create. He needs to work on his shot, but he’s about the same size as Westbrook was coming into the league (Westbrook 6’3" 187 and Rubio 6’4" 180). Sometimes he tries to be too flashy, causing turnovers, and he needs to improve his range, but he’s quick, he thinks fast, he’s creative and he would be an excellent choice to run the break.
I love Rubio as a prospect… on a team loaded with shooters, with a backcourt mate than can actually shoot. He’ll also need a big man who can set great picks to give him enough room to get into the lane and roll hard on the pick and roll. The Thunder don’t have this guy on the roster. On Memphis, I think Rubio is fantastic. I think they overlist Rubio’s height and weight. He does not look 6’4’’ 180, especially when standing with Rudy Fernandez.
My biggest issue with the Thunder drafting Rubio (and I hope they draft Thabeet, as a Blazer fan) is that they are creating built-in weaknesses. It’s been proven that three point attempts correlate well with winning basketball games. Who takes the threes in that lineup? Rubio, Westbrook… both are stylistically similar in that they must be driving to be most effective.
Also, the Thunder would have a team with limited three-point shooting ability, no post presence, and no frontcourt defense to speak of. Green is too small to guard the great PFs, Durant has struggled with defense mightily, as shown by his +/- stats, and they have no long-term option that is viable at center. There would be an incredible load of talent from positions 1-4, but I’m not convinced that it is cohesive talent.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
Agree with everything here except your first paragraph.
Given the way the roster is constructed, I’m more and more convinced that a trade with the Kings is the way to go (provided Memphis passes on Rubio). I’d also love Birdman on this team.
I don’t think Memphis passes on Rubio. They’re using Chad Ford.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
There would be an incredible load of talent from positions 1-4, but I’m not convinced that it is cohesive talent.
Yeah, unfortunately, I’m not sure there’s a better option for the Thunder. Westbrook had an Offensive Rating of 99, which means he only creates about 99 points per 100 possessions, by FAR the worst of any regular player on the Thunder roster. I think a lot of that is due to his high turnover percentage of 17.3% (only Weaver and Watson were worse). You don’t want to have your point guard leading the team in turnover rate.
Like I always say, there’s a reason they lost 59 games. They have all this talent, but it’s raw, young talent. Look at what the pieces they’re missing: a post presence (Krstic is a big that likes a mid-range game), an efficient distributor, a starting shooting guard, and a role player that has a high TS% and effFG%. They’ve basically got a star (Durant), a few athletic wings (Green, Weaver, Sefolosha), a slasher (Westbrook), an energy big (Collison), and a big guy that can extend (Krstic).
Basically they have a high effort team who is really long, but they don’t have a lot of shooters or scorers to take the pressure off Durant (which is why their offense was one of the worst in the NBA).
Look at what the draft has:
Griffin: Post presence and an above-the-rim guy. A game changer. A legit star.
Rubio: A true distributor who just needs to cut down on the risks he takes with the ball.
Thabeet: Rebounder/blocker with limited offense (translation…role player)
Harden: A guy who can shoot when open, but not create a whole lot for himself (maybe a role player shooter, but not a starting SG).
The top two guys fill needs. Thabeet COULD be great, but he REALLY needs to improve on offense. He doesn’t really fill the need of a post presence right now. Harden fills a need but why would you want to waste the 3rd pick on a role player.
The top 2 picks are likely to be guys that fill needs for the Thunder. I really hope they don’t settle on Thabeet. Either they trade up to fill a need, or trade down and get some nice pieces.
Crimson and Cream Machine
Baseball season = Go Brew Crew!
by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, unfortunately, I’m not sure there’s a better option for the Thunder. Westbrook had an Offensive Rating of 99, which means he only creates about 99 points per 100 possessions, by FAR the worst of any regular player on the Thunder roster. I think a lot of that is due to his high turnover percentage of 17.3% (only Weaver and Watson were worse). You don’t want to have your point guard leading the team in turnover rate.
His offensive rating is pretty worrisome.
Like I always say, there’s a reason they lost 59 games. They have all this talent, but it’s raw, young talent. Look at what the pieces they’re missing: a post presence (Krstic is a big that likes a mid-range game), an efficient distributor, a starting shooting guard, and a role player that has a high TS% and effFG%.
This goes back to my point: the Thunder talent is not cohesive. I think Presti should probably trade the pick to get a guy that fits into what the Thunder need.
I mean, look at the ‘07-’08 Blazers. They had two second year guys leading the team in Roy and Aldridge, similar to Durant/Green on the ‘09 Thunder. The rest of the team was pretty nondescript… and they won 41 games. It’s because their talent works so, so well together.
Presti should cash in some of his young talent, picks, and cap space for players that better complement Westbrook and Durant. I’d try to get a solid big man with Green, personally.
Now, as a Blazer fan, I really hope the Thunder go with Thabeet.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
Now, as a Blazer fan, I really hope the Thunder go with Thabeet.
Because you hope he is a bust? If so, who do you hope we don’t draft?
I really dislike Thabeet. He gets intimidated by stronger players, isn’t a really intense guy, and doesn’t have a semblance of a post game. He’ll be a nice shot-blocker.
I don’t want the Thunder to trade their pick and get a guy who plays really good defense and shoots the three well. That would be a good move for them. No one except Griffin is an incredible fit on the Thunder.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
I don’t want the Thunder to trade their pick and get a guy who plays really good defense and shoots the three well.
This is why I want them to take Wayne Ellington with their late first round pick.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions
eh… Ellington is a decent prospect, but I think he’s more of a 20 MPG rotation guy than a key piece.
One move that would freak me out: OKC somehow getting Courtney Lee. He passes and plays good defense… ugh. He would be a lethal fit with Durant.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
I think Ellington could be a starter in the NBA
with some polishing. He can play defense and has a pure shot.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions
It’s debatable. I didn’t watch enough UNC to get a true scouting report.
This is from DraftExpress:
Defensively, Ellington leaves a lot to be desired. He’s not someone that you would ever call a scrapper and doesn’t really cause havoc on this end of the court. He doesn’t have an overly impressive wingspan (6-7) and his lateral quickness could use some work. He gets exposed when isolated on the perimeter against a quicker player, but struggles perhaps even more when chasing an opposing guard through screens.
Do you disagree?
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
Maybe I’m thinking of Danny Green. Hmmm…
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
I absolutely dislike Thabeet as a high pick. Watching him against Michigan was brutal and basically solidified my revulsion. If he has trouble with basically all physical defenders, the height advantage is completely meaningless.
Presti should cash in some of his young talent, picks, and cap space for players that better complement Westbrook and Durant. I’d try to get a solid big man with Green, personally.
Yeah, Earl Watson isn’t going to cut it for help at the point. Beyond Krstic and Collison, I don’t really like any of their bigs, and I don’t think Krstic or Collison should be starters. Starting Green is fine at PF for now, but then they really need a post presence. I think Weaver and Sefolosha are the same kind of player, and that the Thunder don’t need both of them.
I’m starting to think that the Thunder should just trade the 3rd pick and a guy like Weaver for a team that has one too many shooters, if they can’t get Rubio or Griffin.
How about these scenarios:
*3rd pick and Weaver/Sefolosha to the Kings, who send us Kevin Martin and the 4th pick. Martin has a ridiculous 61% true shooting percentage and could give us a second scoring option aside Durant. Downside, he doesn’t play great defense, but that’s why you hang onto one of Sefolosha and Weaver.
*3rd pick and Weaver/Sefolosha to the Suns, who send us Jason Richardson and the 14th pick. Suns could move way up in the draft order and we get a guy with a 59% true shooting percentage and who is athletic and can play decent D.
*3rd pick, 25th pick and Weaver/Sefolosha to the Bucks, who send us Michael Redd, the 10th pick and the 40th pick. The Bucks unload one of their big contracts which frees them up to sign some of their young guys. We pick up an All star / Olympian SG who is undervalued in Milwaukee, and can still pick up some decent talent down the draft board.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions
*3rd pick and Weaver/Sefolosha to the Kings, who send us Kevin Martin and the 4th pick. Martin has a ridiculous 61% true shooting percentage and could give us a second scoring option aside Durant. Downside, he doesn’t play great defense, but that’s why you hang onto one of Sefolosha and Weaver.
Martin is their best player. They are absolutely not trading him for one step in the draft order. He probably has more trade value than Jeff Green.
*3rd pick and Weaver/Sefolosha to the Suns, who send us Jason Richardson and the 14th pick. Suns could move way up in the draft order and we get a guy with a 59% true shooting percentage and who is athletic and can play decent D.
I’m telling you, Richardson is an awful defender. Roy’s 52 points? On Richardson. He constantly loses people on defense and exhibits no intensity. He’d be a decent offensive option, though he’s a bit of a chucker in that he doesn’t pass incredibly well.
*3rd pick, 25th pick and Weaver/Sefolosha to the Bucks, who send us Michael Redd, the 10th pick and the 40th pick. The Bucks unload one of their big contracts which frees them up to sign some of their young guys. We pick up an All star / Olympian SG who is undervalued in Milwaukee, and can still pick up some decent talent down the draft board.
Redd doesn’t play defense at this point in his career. He has serious injury concerns and actually refuses to pass to teammates if he thinks that he is hot. All that said, he’s a decent option for the Thunder. I still don’t think they trade him for a seven pick step up in a weak draft, though. There isn’t much difference from pick 10 to pick 3.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
put it this way: Redd/Richardson/Martin and Durant would be a hilariously bad defensive combo. Really, really bad.
Plus, they need a guy who can pass somewhat next to Durant and Westbrook. Those three struggle distributing.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
rip hamilton?
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Anthony Parker, Rasual Butler, and Raja Bell are the types of players that I would see fitting well.
Courtney Lee is the guy long-term. He would be a tremendous, tremendous fit.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
No way the Magic trade Lee
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions
None of those guys are the shooters that the Thunder need either
Durant is the only real scoring threat on this team right now
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions
they are all roughly 40% three point shooters.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
they may shoot well from beyond the arc, but they don’t score a lot
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Baseball season = Go Brew Crew!
by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions
This team is a work in progress.
And Presti obviously knows what he’s doing. I’d be shocked if Presti didn’t add a pick up one of Gortat or Birdman or David Lee and a shooter to complement this off season. At the very least.
WoW you guys exploded with the comments
Keep it up, great to finally see a lot of different personalities and perspectives come to the site.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 9:54 PM CDT reply actions
I read the site a fair bit, but I usually leave the commenting for the Thunder fans. I had strong opinions on this, though.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Opinions are always welcome…even from Blazer fans :p
….after all, we will be beating your brains in over the next few years. :p :-D
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I’ll take that bet. :)
Oden had a 15-11 per 36, so when he cuts the fouls out he’ll be great. Roy is a top 8 player, Aldridge is an incredible third wheel, Rudy is a European, and Europeans always improve in their second year, Batum is a lockdown defender who Basketball Prospectus says will be a star… Bayless didn’t even get off the bench.
It’s a good team. OKC will be good as well.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions
You mean...
when he cuts the injuries out :p
Sorry had to say it.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
...and although
Its no longer Portland/Seattle, this will be one of the more heated rivalries over the next 3-5 years if these teams continue to progress along their current expectation levels.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Portland is at least two years ahead of OKC… I’m not as scared of the Thunder as I am of the Lakers or LeBron.
I like the Thunder young talent, but I dunno why they only won 23 games. Roy, Aldridge, and a crappy supporting cast won 41 games in their second year.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions
3-29 Start
is the reason why. I don’t think people really understand how difficult the uprooting and moving of the team, staff, and players actually is, especially on such short notice.
I personally think that 3-29 record to start the season can be attributed directly to that.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 20, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Even considering moving as one of the factors that hurt them in the early season, they still weren’t a good team all year. 20-30 after the early season.
The main conundrum about the Thunder is Durant’s defense. He’s such a brilliant offensive player, but teams pick on him when he’s playing defense. They won a few games with him out.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Blazers supporting cast >>>>> Thunder supporting cast
EARL WATSON? Come on, if Earl Watson is getting minutes on your team there’s a problem. Nobody beyond Krstic or Collison looks comfortable at the 5 or 4 other than maybe Jeff Green but he’s more of a 3 IMO.
Nobody at shooting guard. I mean the Thunder had NO depth.
The good news is they have a lot of cap room, so they should be able to do literally whatever they want. Westbrook, Durant and Green stay. Anyone else is untouchable.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions
The Blazer ‘07-’08 supporting cast was pretty bad. Outlaw had a low TS% and didn’t play defense, Webster was below average, Jack was turnover prone… it was Brandon and LaMarcus’ team.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions
It may actually be intentional..
to have no depth right now. It accomplishes several things. #1 gives all your young players the maximum amount of playing time to help develop. #2 Saves money, we’re way under the cap for a reason, to save money while these young guys get tons of playing time.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 21, 2009 5:15 AM CDT up reply actions
- artificially lowers team record to obtain higher draft pick.
Fearthesword.com: "There is no doubt that the long layoff, combined with the ease of the first two rounds had the Cavaliers a bit tired in the 4th quarter."
stupid SBN formatting. That was a # 3
Fearthesword.com: "There is no doubt that the long layoff, combined with the ease of the first two rounds had the Cavaliers a bit tired in the 4th quarter."
lol, hate that. I do it a lot too.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 22, 2009 11:34 PM CDT up reply actions
True, but I could see Earl Watson being the backup point
for San Antonio or the Celtics and thriving in that role. He’s not a bad shooter, and if he isn’t burdened with too much PG responsibilities and has good players to take the heat off of him, he’s not a bad player to have. Good defense (or at least the ability to play good defense) with the range to hit the three on a fairly consistent basis.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
Are you a morning drinker? (My Watson hate unleashed)
by blackvanilla on May 21, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Nope, not much of a drinker at all.
I was always a Ridnour fan actually. Too bad that never worked out.
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
I think we all wanted that to work out.
We wanted Luke to become something he just never became. We’ll always have this though.
Probably the whole
Lack of defense + lack of ball movement + lack of interior post players + etc etc.
his two injuries this year were not worrisome at all. An ankle sprain and a crazy play when Maggette’s knee exploded into his knee.
Also, the microfracture didn’t even have to happen. Portland did it to prolong his career. It’s a spot that is smaller than they usually operate on.
His injury issues are overblown. It’s not a Bowie thing, when he had a defective leg.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions
For what it's worth Cablinasian...
…I actually really like the Blazers team. I hope they make the jump to the next level next season. They’re fun to watch. Roy is a stud.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions
It’s hard to even explain Roy to someone that doesn’t live in Portland. It’s not his play. It’s the way he leads the team, talks to every guy on the roster, keeps in contact with teammates during the offseason, deals with the media, relates to his coach, works during the offseason… It’s unbelievable.
Oh, yeah. His play is pretty good too.
I look forward to some OKC-Portland battles. It’s going to be exciting.
Pritchard: "Just because we aren't at the lottery doesn't mean we won't be in the lottery."
by Cablinasian on May 20, 2009 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Roy was great fun to watch when he was in Seattle
And had basically the perfect transition into the NBA
I fell in love with Roy's game
when the Blazers were playing at the Ford Center. Very Impressive. I was also rooting for the Blazers against the Rockets in the playoffs. I still don’t understand how they lost that matchup.
The Blazers are pretty awesome
for how young they are. I actually thought they could make some noise in the playoffs this year.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 21, 2009 5:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I was originally a Sooner fan
but I love being able to support the Thunder now that they’re in OKC. Basketball and football are my two favorite sports, so you’ll see me around here a lot, as well as spending time over on C&C Machine.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm a Sonics fan.
And as much as I tried to deny it, I can’t stop loving this team. It causes me pain.
Same for me as well.
How can you not fall in love with Durant and Green. I’ve always loved Collison as well, how can you not like a guy with a scruffy beard who hustles so much down low?
2010 Seahawks Mock: 1A: Eric Berry S, 1B: Ndamukong Suh DT, 2: Charles Brown OT, 4:Zac Robinson QB, 5: Stafon Johnson RB 6: Will Tukuafu DE, 7: Kerry Meier WR
Also acceptable, trade for Patrick Chung and draft Ed Wang so everyone can Wang Chung tonight.
Oh btw, I'm not going to search for the comment
but I DID mean Danny Green from UNC, not Wayne Ellington. Green plays D and has a good shot. Ellington is more of an offensive player.
Also, I’d love Jodie Meeks at the end of the first round.
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by dishingoutdimes on May 20, 2009 11:13 PM CDT reply actions
What would you guys do with Westbrook?
My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.
That is part of the reason I’m not so excited with Rubio. We passed up Brook Lopez, Kevin Love and Marreese Speights last year to find our point guard. Now that we are in need of a big man; Rubio is becoming a likely choice. If we draft Rubio, I think we would trade his draft rights. Especially with what Rubio’s camp is saying about Memphis and OKC.
Many people see Westbrook as a SG, not me.
I don't believe the Thunder drafted
Westbrook to be the future point guard of this team. I think the original plan was that he would be the longterm solution at the two. As highly touted defensively as he was heading into the draft, it shouldn’t be a big surprise that Presti went in his direction.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 21, 2009 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions
…when it become apparent that Watson was inept to run the point this season, the team decided to go ahead and see what RW0 could do at the point.
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by Mr Pappagiorgio on May 21, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions
The way I see it, Presti seen a player who had a good height and great wingspan for the PG position, that was highly athletic and quick as hell. I see Westbrook being more valuable if he can run the point. RW0 has the potential to become a cross between Rondo and D-Wade. I just think his game needs time to develop.
AKA - 4D
On the other hand
Passing on Kevin Love and Speights was fine with me. Lopez in retrospect obviously looks like a steal. I’m not totally sold on Rubio, but definitely more than Thabeet.
Many people see Westbrook as an eventual SG — he is neither a PG nor a SG at the moment, given his serious problems with both directing the offense as well as shooting (rather, making the shots).
At first the thought of Rubio and Westbrook got me excited. Then an earlier post about what would happen with two guards missing a jump shot and a triple teamed Durant. Might be worth a shot for a year and assess from there.
No matter how horrible of a team of shooters you have
Nobody is going to triple team Durant — and you still have to at least prevent Westbrook from willy-nilly driving to the hoop.
no, they could play a zone, packing the paint, and shade two men toward Durant. The zone could take care of the penetration by Westbrook and Rubio, daring them to take outside shots.
Fearthesword.com: "There is no doubt that the long layoff, combined with the ease of the first two rounds had the Cavaliers a bit tired in the 4th quarter."
From a Kings fan, regarding Spencer Hawes
Listen guys, we like/need Rubio MORE than anybody else, but Petrie doesn’t think that he is a Spencer Hawes better than a Ty Lawson or Brandon Jennings. I’m surprised you guys aren’t looking at Jordan Hill a bit more.

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