An Evaluation of What The Thunder Have (And Need)

So the Thunder didn't get Tyson Chandler. And their major deadline deal was getting Thabo Sefolosha and Malik Rose (not exactly amazing players). Why have the Thunder been struggling this season? Well a lot of it is a byproduct of what was left over from Seattle. The Sonics wasted a lot of draft picks in the first round on big guys that didn't pan out. The deficit in talent can be seen in the following table, in which I list the Player Efficiency Rating, the +/- against league average, and an estimate of how many wins each player contributed to the team. All the statistics are from 2/22 from Basketball Reference. Thabo Sefolosha and Malik Rose are incomplete with this team.

Basically the Thunder have two guys who are exceeding the league average and playing well (not surprisingly, both were high draft picks) - Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Those guys are good locks at the SF and PG positions respectively. Two other guys are playing around league average - Nick Collison and Jeff Green. You could afford to have about two starters around league average if the rest of them are above league average, if you want to have a successful team. The problem is that Jeff Green and Kevin Durant are similar players and both would be a fit at the SF position. So basically, Jeff Green is a future 6th man, and Collison could potentially be a starting PF.

Therefore the Thunder really need to find a starting caliber C and SG. Unfortunately, no such players exist on the Thunder roster. The good news is that the following contracts come off the books after this season: Malik Rose, Desmond Mason, Joe Smith, and Robert Swift. Believe it or not this takes the Thunder down to only $41.767 MIL on the books next season. This gives them some flexibility. They also have 2 first round draft picks and 2 second round draft picks, so they can bring in some cheap talent (relatively cheap).

Even better news is that the Thunder only has around $13 MIL on the books for the following season, so the big 2010 free agent pool might be available to the Thunder if they spend wisely this offseason.

In my opinion, they should let the 4 expiring contracts expire. Then they draft wisely for need (definately no small forwards). Fortunately, the Thunder have a lot of needs too. Then, they just need to find someone at SG and C, cheap, on the free agent market who have a PER vs. League Avg. right around 0 or maybe as low as -1. These players would hold down the fort with improvement from the young core (Durant, Green, and Westbrook) and give the Thunder a more competitive team next season.

Here's my list of attractive free agent targets for the Thunder this offseason:

• Flip Murray (SG, Atlanta Hawks) - Murray will be paid $1.5 MIL this season. He's posted a PER of 14.67 so far, which is only 0.33 below the league average. Basically he's a productive player with talent, and is better than anyone the Thunder have right now. He's got 11ppg and is shooting about 37% from behind the arc.
  
• Zaza Pachulia (PF/C, Atlanta Hawks) - Pachulia is a little more expensive this season at $4 MIL. He's posted a PER of 14.31 or only 0.69 below the league average. Since he's been less productive than in past years, he might be cheaper, especially with the slowing economy.
• Ben Gordon (SG, Chicago) - Gordon is much more expensive. He's got a salary of $6.4 MIL this season, plus he's extremely productive. PER of 17.15, good for 12th among league SG's. He's averaging 20.7ppg and is shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. Chicago sees him as part of their "core" so he probably wouldn't be cheap, but he's young and a great SG. If the Thunder want him, they could get him.
• Brandon Bass (PF, Dallas) - Bass has been solid for Dallas this year. His salary is at about $800K as he was drafted in the 2nd round. This is the kind of under-the-radar cheap player that the Thunder could pry away from a team like Dallas because they have the money to do so. Bass has posted a PER of 16.04, better than the likes of Jason Maxiell and Lamar Odom!
• Jamal Crawford (SG, Golden State) - This one is HIGHLY conditional. He is making over $8 MIL a year right now and is not really worth it. If he makes close to that again, then you should just let other teams overspend. However, he's posted a PER right around 15 (league average) and is averaging over 19ppg. A veteran of the league at 28 years old.