The Kevin Durant Conundrum...and follow up

by ThunderHorn on Oct 12, 2009 12:33 PM CDT

Didn't see this posted anywhere and thought some might be interested. This is truehoop blogger Henry Abbot on KD and the Thunder...some interesting stuff here. Basic point is that the Thunder, for whatever reason, are a better team when KD is off the floor, according to the +/- system used.

KD also had some responses for the article.

Its hard to argue with the numbers but I think other factors could be at play as well. If KD doesn't play the entire game for a couple of weeks are the Thunder really a better team? Doubtful.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-45-35/The-Kevin-Durant-Conundrum.html

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-45-42/Memo-to-a-Young-Baller.html

This post does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of Welcome to Loud City or SB Nation. However, it was made by one of the members of the Welcome to Loud City community, so there is a large chance the above post is extremely ballin'!

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I think

some people over-analyze numbers.

If you take KD off this team, is it a better team?

I’d say…no.

by ElectricPencils on Oct 12, 2009 5:49 PM CDT reply actions

This article provided

some good discussion over at Canis Hoopus and I wandered over here to see what was being said here. “The statistics are lying” is what I’m reading. My question would is, If you replace Durant with Kevin Love, do you have a better team? Not saying one way or the other, just wondering on your thoughts. . .

Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)

by frankenhoops on Oct 13, 2009 2:31 PM CDT reply actions

I don't think

Love can replace Durant, forgetting that they play different positions. I just don’t think Love is on the level as Durant as far as talent.

In my opinion, (and I could be off, and if I am, I’m sure someone will tell me), I think when Durant is on the floor, he looks to do too much, or maybe his teammates look for him to do more, and that creates problems that don’t exist when he’s on the bench and the other players have to step up their game to compensate for him not being out there.

When your best player is out there, you slack off and let him do the work, but when he’s not, you step up and play better. This would explain why the team might perform better without him.

Does that make sense?

by ElectricPencils on Oct 13, 2009 4:37 PM CDT reply actions

Love Replacing Durant would make the Thunder better. Green sliding over and playing the SF spot where he belongs, Westbrook and Harden at the 1 and 2. That team is much more balanced than the current Thunder team as Love would provide above average passing and Elite Rebounding.

That being said, I ultimately see the Thunder trying to move Jeff Green as the most likely way to balance this roster while keeping the more talented of the two.

by Ebomb on Oct 14, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Statistics are great ... if you understand what they mean

There are so many nuances that aren’t particularly covered in his analysis or that are random assumptions or complete unknowns. To read something that does a better job replying to this, see: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=732

I’d sum it all up, but the main bit I’d like to point out is this paragraph:

The way Durant’s absence influenced how Green and Westbrook were used on offense helps illustrate my biggest quibble with Winston’s comment denigrating Durant. It ignores the fact that adjusted plus-minus captures a player’s value only in the context of a certain role with a certain team. On the Mavericks or any other team, Durant might thrive in a different role. This is a weakness of any statistical rating system, not something germane solely to adjusted plus-minus, but that’s why analysts must be careful to supplement the bottom-line numbers with skill-based statistics and observation.

by manifestus on Oct 13, 2009 6:48 PM CDT reply actions

stats are great but they only tell part of the story

when a star player goes down for a few games usually the entire team picks up the slack and the guy replacing the injured star ups his game somewhat, however, if the injury is for a much longer time usually the rest of the team goes back to their original level and the guy replacing the injured star cannot keep his level up, after all there was a reason he was on the bench in the first place.

by ThunderHorn on Oct 14, 2009 12:51 AM CDT reply actions

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